The recent capture of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a prominent figure in the Sinaloa cartel, has sparked widespread concern over the potential for increased violence and instability within the drug trafficking landscape. The arrest, which took place under dramatic and controversial circumstances, has not only highlighted the intricate connections between organized crime and political entities but also raised questions about the future direction of the Sinaloa cartel and its rival factions.
Zambada’s apprehension was accompanied by a series of events that have fueled speculation and fear among citizens and law enforcement agencies alike. According to reports, Zambada claims he was scheduled to meet with political figures on the day of his arrest, an assertion that has intensified scrutiny over the extent of the cartel’s influence in political spheres. He also claims that he was betrayed by the son of his longtime associate, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, stoking fears of a vendetta in the making. Zambada warns that the “Chapitos,” as the Guzman sons are known, can expect an army of 500 gunmen to take their revenge. While Zambada’s son, “Skinny” may not have as many followers willing to do their bidding, he can call on others who were his father’s allies. This would lead to an extensive and bloody war fought between the rival cartels, but affecting the innocent public as well.
The implications of “El Mayo’s” capture are far-reaching. Historically, the arrest or elimination of key cartel figures has often led to power vacuums, internal struggles for control, and increased violence as rival groups attempt to capitalize on the instability. The fear of a drug cartel war is not unfounded, as such conflicts can result in devastating consequences for public safety and security. According to the Wall Street Journal, a person who worked with Zambada on the shipments of drugs has stated, “There will be war.”
Ismael Bojorquez, editor of Riodoce, a Culiacan-based publication that reports on the Sinaloa drug cartel business, has written, “This will determine the future of the mafia in Sinaloa.”
The arrest of the leaders of the Sinaloa cartel ushers in a period of instability, the power vacuum needs to be filled and before that can occur, there may be a prolonged battle for primacy. Historically, this frequently leads to the escalation of violence as competing cartels seize the opportunity to expand their territories and influence.
According to reports, Zambada, now in U.S. custody, may cut a deal with prosecutors and provide invaluable information on the inner workings of the cartel. In the meantime, in a letter, he has called on the Sinaloa people not to resort to violence, writing that violence can solve nothing. He added, “we have been down this road before and everyone loses.”
The international community and neighboring countries, particularly the United States, are also monitoring the situation closely. The cross-border nature of drug trafficking means that any upheaval within the Sinaloa cartel could have ripple effects, impacting efforts to combat the drug trade, associated criminal activities and the safety of the people.
