This is it! After an intense campaign – in which there has been no shortage of certain surprise twists – today is the last day to vote in the presidential election that will decide not only the fate of a country that has never been so polarized, but also what direction the West will take.
All eyes are on the map – literally – of the United States, and in particular seven swing states, which will decide who will be sitting in the Oval Office for the next four years.
To win the presidency, a candidate must secure an absolute majority of the electoral votes, which means they need at least 270 out of a total of 538.
The electoral votes are the delegates assigned by each state based on its size and population density, awarded by simple majority to the candidate who receives the most votes. As mentioned earlier, the electoral competition will mainly focus on seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
The real question everyone is asking is — when will we know who has won? The answer is more complicated than it seems, as it will likely take days and a lot of patience to determine the final outcome, unless one of the candidates wins decisively–in a landslide.
The moment the polls close – there is no unique time for everyone – states begin publishing unofficial results that the media and news outlets use to project winners. The states themselves declare the winners only weeks later, once the vote counts have been checked and certified.
It took four long days of waiting before the media declared Joe Biden’s election win in 2020, particularly because of recounts in Georgia. In this election round, a similar scenario is likely to repeat itself as at least three states, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, may experience slowdowns in the counting of ballots, but other states could potentially join that list as well.
In addition to legal restrictions on when officials are allowed to count postal ballots, long lines at polling stations at the end of the day can also slow down the counting process, as those in line at closing time are still allowed to vote. Further complicating the picture are the ballots of overseas and military voters, which sometimes do arrive after Election Day,
Let’s look specifically at the scenarios for each of the three swing states as to when the outcome of the vote will be known.
Pennsylvania
In 2020, the media assigned the state to then-Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, on Nov. 7, which was four days after Election Day. According to election officials, the counting of ballots is expected to take several days again this year, so it is likely that tonight the state of Pennsylvania will remain in a state of “too early to call.”
Unlike many other states, officials in Pennsylvania cannot begin processing absentee ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. The process is meticulous: workers must verify that voters have provided all required information, remove ballots from their envelopes, unfold them, check for any damage, and feed them into voting tabulators.
Pennsylvania also has complex rules that often lead to ballot disputes. Absentee ballots must be enclosed in a secrecy envelope, which is then placed in an outer mailing envelope with a proper date. Any mistakes can result in ballots being disqualified from the count.
Nevada
In 2020, the Associated Press declared Nevada for Biden on the Saturday following Election Day. Nevada conducts much of its voting by mail, and the Secretary of State has recommended that counties begin tabulating these ballots as soon as the polls open on Election Day, instead of waiting until polls close as in previous years.
Once the last voter has cast their ballot on Election Day, counties will release totals for in-person votes and mail ballots received before Election Day. Any remaining ballots will include those cast in person on Election Day and mail ballots arriving that day or later. While initial precinct totals may be released on Tuesday night, full results likely won’t be available until later in the week.
Unlike most states, Nevada accepts mail ballots without a postmark up to three days after Election Day and those with a postmark up to four days afterward. This rule adds uncertainty to when final results will be known, particularly in a close race. Notably, the day after Election Day is typically Nevada’s second-biggest day for receiving mail ballots.
Arizona
Four years ago, Fox News and the Associated Press had given Arizona for Biden on election night itself, a move that some felt was premature, as most networks waited several days before confirming Biden’s victory in the state. This year, unofficial results may again take several days.
In Arizona, election officials can begin processing early ballots as soon as they receive them, but many voters still wait until Election Day to turn them in. There is concern that counting the ballots may take even longer this year because of the unusual length of the ballots. In Maricopa County, the state’s most populous, the ballot spans two pages instead of one, covering multiple races and ballot measures. This requires voters and officials to insert twice as many sheets into the ballot counting machines, increasing the likelihood of paper jams that could slow down the counting process.
According to the latest polls from 538, Harris holds a slight advantage of 1.2 percentage points over Donald Trump, further confirming that it will be a very close race and making it unpredictable to forecast who will win the election.
