A gambler on the betting platform Polymarket has put over $30 million in wagers behind a Donald Trump victory, according to the Wall Street Journal. The New York-based company (which does not allow Americans to place wagers, though workarounds are fairly easy) reached out to the user as of an investigation into the bets, since their volume tipped the platform’s stated odds for Trump beating Kamala Harris in the upcoming election, from which they concluded that “this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.”
The mystery gambler, who calls himself Théo and declined to give the publication his real name, spoke with the Journal in a zoom call, telling them that his “intent is just making money.” According to Polymarket’s investigation into his trades and his statements to the paper, Théo is a French national with extensive experience in trading and financial services, having also lived and worked in the United States previously. Théo says that his strategy is based on the underestimation of Trump’s strength in polls from the 2020 and 2016 election cycles. He also claimed that, anecdotally, he sees a difference between what people are willing to declare publicly, or to pollsters, and who they actually support, telling the Journal that he “know[s] a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that.” Théo insists that he has “absolutely no political agenda.”
Although the journalists interviewing Théo were able to confirm that he is indeed in control of the crypto wallets used to place these bets, they could not verify if it was being done with his own money, nor could they establish whether or not he was actually affiliated with any political movement or candidate. If Trump wins, Théo stands to cash in on over $80 million, more than double what he wagered. He told the Journal that the original 30-odd million dollars he put in is nearly all of his cash.
While it is a somewhat tangential metric to go by, the Journal states that “more often than not” favorable betting odds indicate the eventual winner in an election. It is also important to note that betting odds on websites that deal with political events do not function in the same way as other betting platforms. When it comes to sports or other events, bookmakers set the odds themselves based on their own calculation of the likelihood of different outcomes, whereas the odds on Polymarket and other platforms like it shift based on the number of bettors taking one position or another, functioning more like a futures contract than a wager. This mechanism is what allows a “whale” like Théo to warp the odds on Polymarket’s platform, and potentially manipulate others’ perspective on the outcome.
