As of Wednesday, nearly 20,000 more registered Republicans have participated in Nevada’s presidential election compared to registered Democrats. A local political expert described this phenomenon as “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle.”
Data from the Nevada Secretary of State’s office, shared on X by Decision Desk data analyst Michael Pruser, reveals that by Wednesday evening, 159,388 registered Republicans had voted in the Silver State. This figure surpasses the 140,878 votes from Democrats and 97,529 from voters with no party affiliation or from other parties.
Although there is no way to know which candidate they voted for, the early results in this critical swing state pose a setback for the Democrats, who have traditionally excelled with early and mail-in voters. Recent polls indicate that the race remains extremely tight, with election analysis site FiveThirtyEight giving Trump a 51 percent chance of winning in November, compared to 49 percent for Harris.
Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, called the results “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle” on X and noted in a blog post on his website that there is “no good news” for Democrats in these figures.
Ralston, regarding this matter, stated, “I now feel like I am in the upside-down world. In past cycles, I would be telling you how the Dems were slowly building a firewall in Clark (tens of thousands more ballots than Republicans). They have successfully done this in every presidential election since 2008.
He then continued, “But the opposite is happening: Thanks to a rural tsunami, the GOP has moved out to a substantial ballot lead.”
As a matter of fact, Clark County is the most populous county in the state, home to Las Vegas, where Democrats have historically achieved their strongest performance.
Ralston remarked that even if a majority of the 97,529 voters without major party affiliation support Harris, it could still leave Trump with an overall advantage.
He explained, “There are about 100,000 non-major party voters in play, which accounts for 12 percent of the total. This figure is significantly lower than the turnout from both major parties and is part of the reason I believe we should be cautious with most Nevada polls. No one knows how these voters will decide, although Democrats are hopeful since this group tends to be younger.
“However, even if Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among independents in the current electorate, if Trump is maintaining his base, he could still be ahead by approximately 6,000 votes. It’s not a large margin, but it still constitutes a lead.”
As of Oct. 22, Nevada Secretary of State data recorded by the University of Florida showed 131,516 registered Republicans voted in Nevada, compared to 119,798 Democrats. The data revealed a significant Republican advantage in early voting, leading by 73,858 votes to 38,576. However, this was compensated to some extent by the Democrats’ advantage in absentee voting, with 81,222 votes compared to the Republicans’ 57,658.
