Nostradamus, a French astrologer and seer from the 16th century, is best known for his cryptic and often controversial prophecies about future world events. Over the centuries, his name has become synonymous with predictions, earning him a legacy as a figure who could foresee significant historical turning points. It is believed for example, that he predicted Hitler more than 400 years before his birth—and he even came close to naming him precisely in his prediction: Hister. At least this is the popular version of his second sight.
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished political historian and professor at American University, is known as the modern Nostradamus, renowned for his remarkably accurate predictions of U.S. presidential election outcomes. As a matter of fact, he has correctly predicted the outcome of the U.S. presidential election since 1984 — with the only exception being George W. Bush’s victory in 2000 — and now, in a video published by the New York Times, Lichtman has delivered his final verdict on who will be the next president of the United States.
According to the history professor, it will be the current Vice President Kamala Harris who will win the upcoming Nov. 5 election, thus effectively becoming the first African American and Asian-origin woman to hold the highest government position, breaking through the so-called “glass ceiling.”
But how exactly does this predictive model developed by Lichtman works?
“There are 13 true/false questions that relate to the strength and performance of the White House party, but only two key factors have to do with the candidates.”
However, out of the 13 questions, eight were found in favor of Harris, who benefited from the lack of a strong third-party candidate after the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign, positive short- and long-term economic indicators, major legislative accomplishments of the Biden administration, and the absence of social unrest or scandals related to the White House.
She was also favored by the fact that she did not have to go through a primary process to be President Biden’s successor, as the other candidates in the race had unanimously lined up in her favor prior to last month’s Democratic National Convention.
This model does not take into account polls and political pundits, and, according to Lichtman, “These factors will work absolutely fine, being a constant north star of political predictions.”
Lichtman then turned to the issue of foreign policy and how it might affect his verdict: “Foreign policy is complicated, and these keys could flip,” he clarified. “The Biden administration is deeply involved in the war in Gaza, which is an on-going humanitarian disaster.”
Nevertheless, Lichtman believes that even if these factors from a foreign policy perspective turn out to be false, it would not change the outcome of his prediction.
Despite the verdict, Lichtman went on to say that the race is still open and that in two months of campaigning, political scenarios can ultimately change; he finally reiterated that “the final decision is in the hands of the American people” and that “they must get out and vote”.
Is the modern Nostradamus being deliberately cryptic, or is he just hedging his bets?
