The Biden administration is on the brink of finalizing a landmark security treaty with Saudi Arabia, marking a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy. This agreement, known as the Strategic Alliance Agreement, aims to formalize U.S. defense commitments to the Gulf nation while encouraging Saudi-Israeli normalization, an outcome with far-reaching implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics.
This potential treaty represents a remarkable pivot for President Biden, who once vowed to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Now, Biden is poised to extend a formal security guarantee to the oil-rich kingdom.
The treaty, which requires a two-thirds majority vote in the U.S. Senate, is loosely modeled on the U.S.-Japan mutual security pact. It would obligate the U.S. to defend Saudi Arabia if attacked, granting the U.S. access to Saudi airspace and territory to protect its interests and those of its regional allies. This move is intended to solidify Riyadh’s alignment with Washington, explicitly prohibiting Chinese military presence or security cooperation within the kingdom.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has emphasized the broader vision behind the treaty, linking Israel’s long-term security to its integration and normalization with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. “We should not miss a historic opportunity to achieve the vision of a secure Israel, flanked by strong regional partners, presenting a powerful front to deter aggression and uphold regional stability,” Sullivan stated.
However, the path to this agreement is fraught with challenges. Saudi Arabia has stipulated that it will not normalize ties with Israel without significant progress toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. This demand includes irreversible steps towards a two-state solution, a prospect currently opposed by both the Israeli government and a majority of its public. The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas has further complicated these negotiations, with Saudi officials seeking an end to hostilities as a prerequisite for normalization.
The draft treaty also includes provisions for a U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear agreement, allowing for the development of a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia, another contentious issue that needs to be finalized. The potential inclusion of uranium enrichment capabilities has raised eyebrows, given the broader geopolitical implications and the need to ensure non-proliferation standards.
A formal security alliance with Saudi Arabia would be unprecedented, making it the only Arab state with such a treaty. This move could significantly bolster Saudi security, particularly against regional rival Iran, while reinforcing U.S. military presence in the Middle East. The deal would also represent a strategic victory for Washington, potentially disrupting China’s efforts to expand its influence in the region.
The ongoing negotiations reflect a complex interplay of regional dynamics, historical grievances, and strategic interests. For Biden, a successful treaty and Saudi-Israeli normalization would represent a significant foreign policy triumph ahead of the 2024 presidential elections, especially as he navigates domestic criticism over his support for Israel during the Gaza conflict.
