Is RFK Jr, a little-known 70-year old vax-denier, with no experience in politics and a chequered background as a former heroine user- turned crusading environmentalist, going to emerge as Donald Trump’s Trojan Horse? In the Alice in Wonderland world of America’s politics, the answer is: “yes if you are a member of the hallowed Kennedy dynasty, that in the U. S. has quasi-royalty status.”
Robert Fitzgerald Kennedy Junior, or RFK Jr. for short, is the nephew of murdered 1960s president John F. Kennedy and the son of onetime Attorney General Bob Kennedy, who was also assassinated while campaigning for the White House. Quickly disavowed by his estranged clan, RFK Jr. is running nevertheless. He proposes himself as an alternative to the Democratic and Republican candidates that for a number of reasons–not necessarily related to their advanced age— the undecided voter wishes would go into retirement.
“America’s politics is broken”, he says stating the obvious. But the Kennedy outlier fails to acknowledge that his third force party, with no organization whatever at this very late stage, has no chance to succeed. He might nevertheless appeal to the disaffected voter who, facing the unexciting alternative between the two superannuated competitors, Biden and Trump, and deeply disappointed by continuing Congress paralysis and political grandstanding, may be tempted to respond: “none of the above”- and vote for any conceivable new face, or simply stay away from the polls.
The last-minute appearance of a third party, given Trump’s chokehold on the Republican Party–now turned in effect into his own personal fiefdom–for the GOP is totally irrelevant. There would be no migration of conservative or populist voters to the Kennedy amoeba. For Biden instead, even a relatively minor hemorrhage of votes in key swing states would mean courting disaster.
Past history shows that a third-party in 2024 could easily go the same way as Ralph Nader’s Green Party in 2000, that drained votes from Al Gore and gave the presidency to George W. Bush after a legal battle lasting 5 weeks – courtesy of a partisan verdict by a 5-4 majority of the unelected Supreme Court.
To further complicate matters for President Biden now, in Robert Kennedy Jr.’s third-party, there is the choice of his running mate Nicole Shanahan. Most Americans have not even heard her name. She is the seriously rich ex-wife of Sergey Mihailovich Brin, the co-founder of Google and the 10th wealthiest individual in the world, with an estimated net worth of $ 119 billion.
Ms. Shanahan is 38 years old, divorced from Brin after an undisclosed settlement, and a Silicon Valley lawyer by training. She describes herself as a philanthropist and has no experience in politics but plenty of cash. “I am confident”, said RFK, Jr., “that there is no American more qualified to play this role than Nicole Shanahan”. He meant, of course, in her totally imaginary role, as future vice president of the United States. More likely, for President Biden, is the risk that the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket might soak up Democratic votes and go down in history as the pair who brought Trump to the White House.
Opinion polls give RFK Jr. a margin of between 2 and 15 percent in a three-way race. In a tight close election with three competitors, even the lower figure might make the difference between failure and success.
Uncertainty is global. Politically, the global Eurasian Group think-tank observes in its latest annual report, 2024 is the annus horribilis that must not even be named because it’s a harbinger of doom. “Wars will dominate world affairs. Russia versus Ukraine, now in its third year. Israel versus Hamas, now in its sixth month. And finally, the United States versus itself, ready to kick off at any moment”.
We have been warned.
