America has once again handed the keys of the White House to Donald Trump.
Just four years after being voted out, Trump, now 78, secured a second term with over 270 Electoral College votes, turning years of discontent into a powerful, divisive victory which is set to challenge democratic institutions and strain alliances abroad, all while deepening partisan rifts at home.
CNN’s exit polls from 2024, when compared with those from 2016 and 2020, provide a clearer picture of the dynamics driving the shift, revealing a mix of economic and cultural concerns that influenced diverse groups of voters.
Economic Concerns and Gender Shifts
The economic strain felt nationwide weighed heavily against Vice President Kamala Harris and the Biden administration. Throughout her campaign, Harris championed issues like abortion rights to rally women voters. Yet, with two-thirds of Americans rating the economy poorly, Trump’s economic narrative resonated more widely with the general public. The trend represents a stark contrast to 2020, when voters were split on the economy’s health despite the pandemic’s disruptions.
Women voters proved to be a contested ground. Harris failed to expand her female support base beyond what Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton achieved in previous elections, faring even worse than both predecessors. Trump, meanwhile, maintained solid backing from male voters, especially Latinos, a group that had shown more support for Biden in the previous election – though Latina women largely favored Harris, albeit by narrower margins than Clinton or Biden had seen.
Shifts by Education and Age
Education remains a dividing line in American politics. Trump’s support among White voters without college degrees remained robust, while White college-educated voters leaned towards Harris, who won this group by about ten points. Within this demographic, college-educated White women in particular backed Harris, though her support among voters of color saw a dip across education levels.
Age dynamics also shifted, as Harris lost some traction with younger voters — a group that traditionally backs Democrats — but gained ground with older voters, a demographic generally leaning Republican. This shift among seniors may signal a broader realignment of age-based voting patterns.
Urban-Rural Divides Persist
The urban-rural divide remained stark. Trump reasserted his hold in rural areas, restoring his 2016 support levels. Meanwhile, Harris maintained strength in urban centers, while suburban voters once again proved pivotal in determining the election outcome – this time in Trump’s favor.
Abortion Rights and the New Political Landscape
The Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has transformed the national discourse on abortion rights into a battleground. Public support for legal abortion has climbed, with about two-thirds of Americans now in favor. Yet, many voters did not base their choice solely on this issue: nearly half of those backing abortion rights still cast their votes for Trump.
The Strength of Partisan Identities
Liberal and conservative voters have entrenched themselves further into their respective camps, leaving moderates as a shrinking but fiercely contested group. Harris retained an edge with moderates, but by a slimmer margin than in prior elections. For many Trump supporters, the vote was a clear endorsement of his platform, while a substantial share of Harris’s supporters viewed their vote as a stand against Trump rather than an endorsement of her policies.
Impact of Low-Propensity Voters
Last but not least, Trump’s approach to mobilizing low-propensity voters — those who typically skip elections — paid off, contrasting sharply with 2020, when first-time voters favored Biden. However, fewer voters overall reported casting their first ballots this year, suggesting that 2020’s record turnout may have been a high-water mark.
Overall, Trump will face a nation deeply split across lines of age, education, race, and geography. In the years ahead, the redefined political landscape will test the resilience of both American democracy and its role on the global stage.
