Tomorrow, November 5th, will be the last day to vote in the presidential election, where Americans will be asked to choose who will be their next president, between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, for the next four years.
At the same time as choosing a president, however, a wide range of local and state elections will be held, but most importantly, the entire House of Representatives will be up for grabs, and one-third of the Senate will be renewed.
From 1987 to 2011, each elected president also had full control of both branches of Congress, and this combination allowed incumbent presidents to have unimpeded influential legislative and executive power; for example, deficit reduction by Bill Clinton, tax cuts by George W. Bush and health insurance expansion by Barack Obama.
This mechanism, however, could be interrupted with tomorrow’s vote; in fact, should Kamala Harris be elected as the next president, the Democrats are unlikely to retain control of the Senate, which according to polls, is expected to return to the Republican Party.
On the Republican front, a rather rare phenomenon—a trifecta—could be on the horizon. This refers to the situation in which the party of the president-elect controls both the House of Representatives and the Senate, resulting in complete dominance of power.
If Donald Trump were to win, judicial control would also come into play, as the Supreme Court currently has a conservative majority of 6 out of 9 justices, three of whom were appointed by Trump during his first term. Therefore, if the “trifecta” scenario materializes for the GOP, and Trump would secure a second presidential term, Congress would be entirely under Republican control, and the Supreme Court would remain conservative.
However, if Kamala Harris were to win the election, making her the first African American woman of Asian descent to hold the highest office in the country, her party would likely not gain control of the Senate, which, according to the latest polls, is expected to return to the GOP. According to polls conducted by 538, the Republican Party has a 90 percent chance of winning the Senate and a 52 percent chance of winning the House.
As a result, the election of Kamala Harris would be a half victory, since without a solid majority in the Senate she is unlikely to be able to impose her presidential agenda; in particular it would be nearly impossible to pursue the codification of Roe v. Wade and the protection of reproductive rights.
