With the presidential election just under two weeks away, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are currently tied in the polls. However, a popular betting market has shown a significant shift in Trump’s favor, prompting an investigation into a recent wave of bets and their origin.
In fact, over the past two weeks, the odds of Trump winning the upcoming November election have increased significantly on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based forecasting platform. Last Friday, bettors were estimating Trump’s odds of victory at 60 percent, compared to Harris’ 40 percent; In particular, the two candidates were almost evenly matched at the beginning of October.
Trump’s gains on Polymarket have sparked enthusiasm among his supporters and consequently led to a shift in odds in his favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk himself pointed out Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million followers on X on Oct. 6, praising how betting markets work. “They are more accurate than polls because there is real money at stake,” Musk wrote.
However, this surge may be an illusion generated by a group of four Polymarket accounts, which collectively invested about $30 million in cryptocurrencies betting on Trump’s victory.
Miguel Morel, the chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that investigated the accounts, stated, “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity.”
The significant bets on the Trump victory may not have malicious intent. Some analysts believe they were made by a single high-stakes bettor, confident of Trump’s victory and looking for substantial gains. Others, however, see these bets as part of a campaign to generate enthusiasm on social media for the former president, and thus to be a move designed specifically to galvanize the Republican electorate.
But how exactly does this betting platform work? Polymarket users place bets using stablecoins, a form of cryptocurrency worth $1 each. By purchasing a contract that answers a yes or no question, such as “Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election?”, bettors receive $1 if their prediction is correct and nothing if it is incorrect. In addition, users have the option to sell their contracts before the outcome is determined, allowing them to make a profit or loss on their bets.
According to Arkham, the accounts betting on Trump, Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie, were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange. They behaved similarly, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump while simultaneously increasing the size of their bets, Arkham discovered. In addition, the oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.
Adam Cochran, an experienced cryptocurrency investor who has been following the activity at Polymarket, believes the recent wave of betting is an attempt to build momentum for Trump ahead of Election Day. He noted that if Trump loses, the favorable odds in the betting markets could support the argument that the election was stolen from him, and thus reopen the same scenario that occurred in 2020, namely the “stolen election” theory.
While $30 million may seem like a significant amount of money, it is enough to shift the odds on Polymarket and is not a substantial investment for a wealthy individual seeking to influence elections, Cochran added.
