For many decades, young Americans have been the driving force behind the vibrancy of the nation’s biggest cities. However, they are now leaving large metropolitan areas favoring the growth of small towns and rural regions.
In fact, since the pandemic, cities with populations over 1 million have seen a decrease in adults between the ages of 25 and 44, while smaller cities have welcomed an influx of young people, based on a University of Virginia analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data that considers both incoming and outgoing residents.
“Younger adults have driven most of the shift towards small towns and rural areas since the pandemic,” stated Hamilton Lombard, the study’s author and a demographer at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
Lombard pointed out that the health crisis has motivated many Americans, regardless of age, to move to less populated areas with reduced risks of infection. However, even though concerns about COVID-19 have mostly disappeared, the persistent shift to remote work and more affordable living costs in smaller metropolitan areas still attracts young Americans to rural communities.
While young Americans have long favored big cities, since 2017 rural areas have begun to attract more individuals between the ages of 25 and 44, leading to a decline among them in large metropolitan areas due to the high living expenses in cities. Many millennials, now in their 30s, were starting families and buying larger homes. However, Lombard noted that with a declining birth rate limiting the supply of young workers amid the retirement of millions of baby boomers, large cities are still expected to attract the majority of young workers in the 2020s, because of higher wages and improved amenities.
The pandemic has completely inverted this pattern. As a matter of fact, since 2020, two-thirds of the growth in the 25-44 age group has occurred in metropolitan areas with a population of less than one million or in rural regions. By contrast, according to the study, from 2010 to 2020, 90 percent of the population growth in this age group occurred in larger metropolitan areas with more than four million residents.
According to Adam Kamins, regional economist at Moody’s Analytics, one age group that is returning to the country’s largest cities is 18- to 24-year-olds, a segment of Generation Z (ages 17 to 27). This demographic continues to be attracted to the “lifestyle and amenities associated with big cities,” Kamins noted.
Lombard, however, pointed out that the increase in 18- to 24-year-olds in urban areas is largely due to the greater number of colleges and increased college enrollment in these cities, and consequently the increased job opportunities.
Having analyzed all scenarios, it is therefore unlikely that those between the ages of 25 and 44 will be returning to large metropolitan areas anytime soon.
Lombard pointed to a continuing trend toward remote work that, although it has softened with the growing number of companies requiring employees to return to the office at least part-time, shows no signs of slowing down. According to a Goldman Sachs report, the percentage of U.S. employees working from home at least occasionally has stabilized at between 20 percent and 25 percent. This shift has allowed more young Americans to settle in smaller cities that offer more open space and lower living costs, avoiding the constant need to move from place to place
