As of now, the Democrats hold a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate, although Republicans are expected to win West Virginia, where Democratic Senator Joe Manchin will likely retire. A Republican victory there combined with any other victory in the seven red or purple states currently held by Democrats would give the Republican Party control of the Senate, assuming it can maintain its current number of seats.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday, Republicans are on track to win another key seat: Montana. In fact, Republican candidate Tim Sheehy is ahead of Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by 8 percentage points, specifically 52 percent to 44 percent.
Prior to this poll, Democrats were leading in almost all Times/Siena polls of major Senate races, including Ohio, in which Sherrod Brown was ahead by 4 points in a state that Trump had won by 8 points in 2020. A favorable result in Montana would have extended the Democrats’ momentum and maintained their chances of retaining control of the Senate, but they have failed to do so.
However, the result in Montana is not particularly surprising since Tester has not led in any public poll since mid-August and most of the data did not show a particularly close race. His path to victory and, consequently, the Democrats’ path to retaining the Senate, was always going to be challenging, as Trump won the State of Montana by 16 points in 2020. Meanwhile, the new poll shows Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by a similar margin of 17 points.
Without a victory in Montana, Democrats would have to flip a red state to retain control of the Senate, but the latest polls suggest it will not be straightforward. The most plausible scenarios are Texas and Florida on paper, but in these states incumbent Republicans are ahead: Ted Cruz is leading by 4 points in Texas, while Rick Scott is ahead by 9 points in Florida.
If these results were final, then Democrats would lose all hope of regaining control of the Senate. Yet, there is one more race to keep track of in Nebraska, where independent candidate Dan Osborn has performed competitively against Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. Osborn has stated that if he wins, he will not be part of either party, which could leave control of the Senate hanging in the balance.
Although a victory by an independent candidate is possible, Democrats should still win all the races in which they are now favored. It is important to note, however, that similar independent campaigns in Kansas (2014) and Utah (2022) ended in Republican victories. A recent Times/Siena poll of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District showed Osborn leading in the state’s only Democratic-leaning district, but not enough to suggest he can win in the entire state.
