Election and pollster expert Nate Silver is warning the American people urging them to make “contingency plans” if Trump regains again the White House, since, according to Silver, this particular presidential race still remains a toss up election, and everything could still change between now and November 5th.
Speaking to the Guardian, Silver stated that: “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter, but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term?”
“Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Harris, who has more money than she needs.”
While the race is unpredictable and a toss-up, according to Silver’s forecasting model, the Democratic nominee maintains a slight lead in both the probability of winning the electoral and the popular vote, with a 63 percent chance of securing the key state of Michigan and a 57 percent chance of winning the crucial state of Pennsylvania, which most likely represents the State that will determine who will be the next President.
As of right now, according to the Independent’s poll tracker, Harris has a 2.9 percent overall lead over Trump in an average of national polls.
This Saturday, both campaigns focused on crucial swing states to try to attract votes and endorsements, respectively with Vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance delivering speeches in Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump held a rally in North Carolina.
Trump’s visit in North Carolina also represents a complicated political situation since he recently endorsed Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson; the controversy concerns the fact that Robinson, before entering the political scene, allegedly posted comments on a pornography site and referred to himself as a “black nazi”. Trump himself praised his political career, comparing him to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. calling Robinson “on steroids”.
There are still less than 45 days till this crucial election that will be decisive on what course the United States will embark on in the coming decades, but according to national polls, which give Harris as the favorite for the moment, the race is more open than ever and everything could still change at any moment.
