The flow of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border is slowing to a trickle. Since the beginning of 2024, the number of apprehensions has dropped dramatically.
July and August marked a notable decrease in the number of crossings, hitting the lowest point in four years. This downturn comes after a period of record-breaking numbers, suggesting a shift in the migration patterns that have been consistent in recent years. The reasons behind this decline are multifaceted, involving a combination of enforcement measures, policy shifts, and international cooperation.
According to The Texas Tribune, migrant apprehensions in Texas—the frontline of illegal crossings– decreased by nearly one-third in June, the first month of a new order by President Joe Biden that widely limited asylum claims. In mid-July the Washington Post reported that there had been 1,900 crossings per day at the border during that past week, according to a White House fact sheet citing the latest U.S. Customs and Border Protection data. Those numbers are comparable to the final weeks of Donald Trump’s term as president, CBP data show.
A key factor in the decline is that the U.S. has implemented consequences for crossing illegally, which may have served as a deterrent. “Recent border security measures have made a meaningful impact on our ability to impose consequences for those crossing unlawfully,” acting CBP Commissioner Troy A. Miller said in a statement. “We are continuing to work with international partners to go after transnational criminal organizations that traffic in chaos and prioritize profit over human lives.”
Diplomatic efforts are also bearing fruit. Mexico, Guatemala, Panama, and Colombia have increased their border enforcement and humanitarian relief programs, at the Biden administration’s urging, and this has likely influenced the migration trends. These collaborative efforts reflect a broader regional approach to managing migration flows.
Another key factor that is contributing to the reduction in crossings is the creation of new, lawful pathways for migrants. This approach aims to provide a structured and safe process for those seeking entry into the United States, countering the need for dangerous and illegal crossings.
Despite the current decline, the situation remains dynamic. Shifts in U.S. border policy often lead to temporary changes in migrant behavior, as individuals and smuggling networks adapt to new circumstances. What’s more, the underlying issues driving migration—such as violence, poverty, and political instability in home countries—persist.
The recent figures also present a political dimension, especially in the context of the upcoming presidential election. The GOP campaign continues to make illegal immigration one of their central issues and Donald Trump, the presidential candidate, persistently stokes fear and hatred of migrants by highlighting crime and making false claims that they are responsible for spikes in violence.
Not everyone is happy to see the border crossings diminish. Human aid organizations, and specifically, Advocacy for Human Rights in America (WOLA) have underscored that Biden ran for office rejecting Trump’s approach and rhetoric but that now he has adopted some of the same measures. Others have suggested that the drop is a kind of embedded “poison pill” of the successful strategies. Biden’s emergency measures call for the asylum restrictions to resume if daily average crossings once again surpass 2,500. However, U.S. officials have said they are confident they can avoid another surge as long as they have the capacity to quickly process migrants and deport those who don’t qualify for access to the U.S. asylum system.
