It’s November 6, 2024, and following a breathtaking election night, the whole nation is confronted with the unexpected: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump won the same share of the 538 electoral votes. What’s next?
A 269–269 tie is not all that implausible given the intense competition between the two presidential contenders. That kind of thing has only happened once in American history, during the heated contest between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr in 1800, which resulted in the first “contingent election,” when the House of Representatives determined the winner. The stakes were high then and are even higher now.
Is there a chance that this year will end in a tie? Even if the odds are remote, it’s a possibility that cannot be ruled out. Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and one electoral vote from Nebraska might go to Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris. But if Harris loses Georgia and Pennsylvania, there would most likely be a tie in the Electoral College.
Maine and Nebraska feature a unique electoral vote distribution system, with two votes going to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. In a close contest, these votes may be quite important.
A contingent election would take place on January 6, following Congress’s tally of electoral votes. Every state delegation has one vote in the House for president, and the commander in chief is chosen by a simple majority of votes from 26 states. The vice president nominated by the Senate would temporarily take over as president if the House is unable to come to an agreement before January 20, that is Inauguration Day.
This procedure is special because of the benefit it provides to smaller states. Every state, regardless of size, gets one vote in a dependent election. This implies that Wyoming and Delaware have the same amount of power as California and Texas, whereas Washington, DC, is not included in this voting procedure.
Partisan control and gerrymandered maps might also affect the way votes are cast because state delegates are not required to respect the results of their state’s popular vote. This adds another element of unpredictability to the electoral process. Right now, Democrats are in majority in 22 states, with ties in North Carolina and Minnesota, while Republicans are in majorities in 26 states.
While uncommon, contingent elections do occur. The electoral procedures in 1824 and 1836 were comparable, but less acrimonious. A special bipartisan panel managed to get around the contingent election process in the 1876 election, which was marred by disputes over electoral votes from many states. As a result, Rutherford B. Hayes was declared the winner of the president even though he had lost the popular vote – a circumstance that was to happen three more times in U.S. history, most recently in 2016 with Donald Trump.
