Recent polls conducted by numerous outlets have found that Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck in terms of support from Americans, closing the gap the Republican nominee held over President Joe Biden.
Since Biden withdrew from the race, Harris’ support from many voters has considerably increased, indicating she has broken into the six-point lead Trump previously had over the president since the debate that they held. According to a poll issued by the Wall Street Journal, Trump now holds just a 2% lead over Harris in a two-person race, within the Journal’s 3.1% margin of error.
Other polls conducted this week by The New York Times/Siena College (Trump +1 over Harris) and CNN (Trump +3) also represent tightening from a 6-point Trump leads, a shift that followed the assassination attempt, his selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, and the GOP convention. Those events were all expected to give Trump a considerable boost, instead he seems to be losing ground. Harris is trailing closely behind the Republican nominee, performing rather well with traditionally Democratic groups among whom Biden was not overwhelmingly favored.
“Only 37% of Biden voters were enthusiastic about him in early July, and now 81% of Harris voters are enthusiastic about her,” Democratic pollster Mike Bocian, who conducted the WSJ survey with Republican pollster David Lee, told the Journal. “This is an astounding change.”
The Times/Siena poll found Harris is running stronger than Biden has all year among young voters and minority voters, while also maintaining support from older and white voters, a demographic where his numbers were strong. Yet, the results also show the former president is running ahead of his 2016 and 2020 numbers within those groups.
Meanwhile, an Axios/Generation Lab poll conducted this week among voters aged 18-34 showed Harris leading Trump by 20 points, 60% to 40%, compared to Biden’s 6% lead. Some 45% among the cohort said they had a positive opinion of Harris, compared with 33% who said the same about Biden, and 34% who felt positively about Trump.
An aggregate of polls from the Hill and Decision Desk HQ, based on 80 polls, has Trump at 47.8% to 45.7% for Harris, a difference again within the margin of error that could reflect they are actually tied.
Since Harris announced she would run in place of Biden, she has raised $200 million from donors, marking one of the largest fundraising periods in presidential history. However, Harris has still not chosen a running mate, which could potentially alter the trajectory of her campaign.
