The current conundrum in world affairs, characterized by unabated armed conflict in the Middle East and Central Europe, many low-intensity but highly destructive armed conflicts in forgotten places, and an overall deep crisis of multilateralism, demands a radical innovation in policy and an alternative approach to war. A well-timed, gradual, and progressive peace offensive might be the answer at hand.
The primary goal of a peace offensive is to instil confidence by diminishing distrust and shifting the spiral of fear towards a spiral of hope. As Charles E. Osgood proposed during the height of the nuclear arms race, fostering reciprocity from the opponent is the aim, potentially reducing the adversary’s inclination towards a heightened military buildup.
Historical instances of “Graduated Reciprocation in Tension Reduction” (GRIT), such as Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s unilateral nuclear concessions in the late 1980s, which resonated with U.S. President Ronald Reagan, underscore the efficacy of such diplomatic strategies. Another historical example are the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel that showcase how courageous and persistent diplomatic endeavours by President Anwar Sadat could yield significant peace breakthroughs.
A world in turmoil – Prospects of peace initiatives
The Middle East, a region long plagued by contention and suffering, has the potential to benefit greatly from a renewed peace initiative. The prolonged conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and the recent war between the Israeli army and Hamas have resulted in a growing number of civilian casualties and widespread destruction, leading to unprecedented humanitarian crises. A structured peace effort that involves unilateral concessions and confidence-building measures could lay the groundwork for sustainable solutions. By emphasizing economic cooperation, social exchange, humanitarian aid, and cultural understanding, this peace initiative could address root causes of conflict and nurture a new era of stability and prosperity in the Middle East.
On the other hand, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine represents one of the most perilous global confrontations, involving nuclear capabilities and potential direct clashes between NATO and Russia. What initially began as a swift invasion has now transformed into a prolonged war of attrition. There are indications that both Russia and Ukraine may be open to proposals focusing not only on a temporary ceasefire but on achieving lasting peace. The nature of the conflict has evolved, and the language of its leaders has adapted accordingly. Despite this, the core objectives appear to align with those initially outlined back in March-April 2022 when the conflict erupted.
Currently, Russia controls a significant portion of Ukrainian territory (approximately 20%) and has deployed a considerable military presence (originally 180,000 troops, now exceeding 500,000 soldiers on the ground). Despite initial setbacks, Russia’s economy has rebounded due to wartime efforts that revitalized its military and related industries. However, the sense of isolation felt by Russians, stemming from severed connections with Europe and the United States, cannot be easily compensated for by alliances with China and lukewarm support from BRICS nations.
On the Ukrainian side, while they have managed to hold their defensive positions, they have lost substantial ground in the Donbas region and are unable to retake Crimea militarily.. At several instances, Ukrainian leaders have expressed willingness to engage in renewed direct talks with Russia.
In this context, a peace initiative, strategically crafted to be as impactful as a military campaign, could play a crucial role in de-escalating tensions and offering solutions without resorting to armed conflict. Initial efforts from both sides may be dismissed as mere propaganda, but as the peace initiative gains momentum with unwavering dedication, even the staunchest opponents will have to acknowledge its potential benefits.
Let’s imagine that as of October 1, the Israeli occupying army will give unimpeded access to humanitarian aid in Gaza; that by October 1, water and electricity in all occupied territories in Gaza will be restored. Let’s imagine that Israel announces that by November 1, at the conclusion of its military campaign, Israel offers free medical services and technical support in various fields to Palestinians in the recovery and reconstruction effort.
In parallel, Egypt and Israel could be spearheading an initiative for the creation of a Middle Eastern trade-free zone. Water management and desalinization technology could be boosted along with gas supply at a sub-regional level. Technology transfer and innovation diffusion to advance sustainable development objectives, such as renewable energy and agricultural productivity, would benefit all neighbouring countries.
On the other hot front, let’s assume that Russia declares that by September 1, its troops would evacuate the nuclear power plant of Zaporizhzhia, due to international concerns of possible nuclear accidents. Let’s assume that Ukraine will unilaterally declare that, as of October 1, its military objectives will exclude strikes on Russian soil. Let’s consider that scientific and educational cooperation exchanges between all belligerents resume, as a reciprocation measure, by December 1.
Furthermore, in order to reduce immediate world-wide threats and foster international cooperation, we could envision the implementation of gradual key initiatives at a global level. These would include halting nuclear proliferation and weapons production to revert to pre-2020 levels, and establishing new forums for disarmament dialogue.
Offering Russia assurances of a militarily neutral Ukraine and inviting Ukraine to join the European Union would build trust and stability in the region. Demilitarizing the Donbas region through a phased withdrawal of armed forces overseen by international observers can promote peace.
Easing economic sanctions on Russia could facilitate constructive dialogue based on verified actions. Proposing permanent security assurances between Russia and the West through a new international treaty emphasizing collaboration on shared security challenges can defuse tensions further.
Russia, on the other end, could take swift action to cease digital political interference and the current misinformation campaign with sprouting deep-fake news in western media. In parallel, the UN could promote the establishment of an international cyber agreement to prevent state-sponsored hacking and misinformation campaigns, as a crucial step for global stability.
Let us be clear. The above wish list, among many others, is just a hypothesis and some may consider it utopistic. But it might also represent a fathomed series of events capable of triggering a large-scaled peace offensive.
The collective involvement of nations and individuals on a global scale can drive substantial change by actively participating in and sustaining peace initiatives. Various stakeholders could collaborate to shape a peaceful future together.
Investing in societal well-being and ensuring that the needs of communities are heard are essential components of charting a positive future amidst prevalent threats like climate change and uncontrolled weapons proliferation.
Revamping multilateralism to address contemporary challenges is imperative. Despite the shortcomings and setbacks, global cooperation remains essential in times of crisis. Rebuilding trust, reinventing dialogue, and reconfiguring the fractured global landscape are key components of fostering positive international relations and safeguarding human security.
The upcoming UN Summit of the Future in the fall (22-23 September 2024) in New York will consider multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow. It will also be an opportunity to reaffirm commitments to international law, human rights principles, and international peace. The Summit in New York will also present a unique opportunity to reaffirm commitments towards a sustainable and secure future for all.
This will require aligning expectations with operational capacities and ensuring adherence to principles of international law. Upholding those principles is essential for the effective functioning of the multilateral system and the promotion of peace and stability worldwide.
The time for a global peace offensive has come.
