The question of whether Joe Biden will pull out of the 2024 race sometime before the Democratic National Convention won’t go away, despite his vehement denials of any Plan B existing either in the Party or in his mind.
Just this past Tuesday he dismissed a reporter’s question about whether his three-day fundraising trip to California is just camouflage for his courtship of Governor Gavin Newsom to replace him on the Democratic ticket.
The reporters are relentless. “You’re going to California. Is this about coming up with a Plan B for 2024 — does Gavin need to stand by?” the journalist asked Biden on the White House lawn as he departed.
Joe Biden took it in good grace. He laughed it off.
Newsom, 56, has been accused of running a “shadow campaign” for the presidency just in case Biden has to exit the contest for health reasons. The governor has denied any such intention and reiterated his complete support for the president.
Yet several developments suggest that Newsom is ready to step up if needed. He has made bold and unexpected moves, including a financial donation to a Democratic mayoral candidate in South Carolina, which is an early state in the primary process for Democrats. Doing well in these early states is imperative to build momentum that can carry over into others.
Whether Newsom becomes the choice for Democrats will depend on how President Biden’s campaign develops, whether Vice President Kamala Harris steps aside willingly, and who else jumps into the rink.
Newsom’s political positioning is interesting but also problematical. Like virtually all Democrats these days, he is liberal on social issues such as supporting the right to an abortion. But at the same time, he’s not afraid to criticize Democrats for being too soft on Republicans and failing to take control of the political narrative. Thus, he makes enemies among his Democratic allies.
His major disadvantage is that he hails from the most liberal and quirky state in the Union. As one reporter wrote, echoing popular sentiment, “If the world had a capital for the weird and wacky, it would have to be in California. No contest.”
The state is also frequently referred to as dystopic for its social unrest, deepening poverty and the proliferation of drug addiction and mental illness. Newsom, as the governor, is associated with this chaos. Finally, he may also be too liberal for mainstream America on certain key issues such as LGBTQ+ rights.
While the rest of us try to guess whether he’s positioning himself for a run at the presidency, he’s been acting a lot like a presidential candidate. His recent campaign-like activities include traveling to several red states, challenging Republican governors, launching a political action committee called “Campaign for Democracy,” and meeting with international leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu and Xi Jinping.
In his own state his approval rating has sunk to an all-time low after vetoes of bills expanding labor protections and rights alienated powerful unions.
Is Newsom a Socialist—as portrayed in the conservative media—a centrist, or just a political opportunist?
As San Francisco mayor he delighted progressives by authorizing same-sex marriage. Yet at the same time, he antagonized them by slashing welfare payments to the homeless. He has had the gift—or the curse– of straddling the ideological line between the left and right throughout his career.
According to Politico, in just a few weeks this year, “the governor secured an ambitious climate change package…overrode environmentalist concerns and worked with Republicans to keep older power plants running…[and] opposed a proposed income tax increase on wealthy Californians to fund electric vehicle infrastructure, aligning himself with Republicans rather than the California Democratic Party.”
Biden may be trying to head off the scramble for the nomination that would ensue a hypothetical announcement of his withdrawal from the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris and Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Phil Murphy of New Jersey, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Jared Polis of Colorado are all mentioned as possible replacements.
Newsom has name recognition, a donor base, political talent, good looks, and charisma. Plus, at only 56 years of age, he is fresh and vigorous in contrast to Joe Biden, for whom age and frailty have become the primary liability. In the current political climate where both frontrunners for the nomination are octogenarians—or nearly so— whose mental acuity is being questioned, the combination of youth and experience are irresistible.
On Tuesday Biden put the break on the reporters’ questions about Newsom being his Plan B, saying, “hey, woah, woah, woah, woah” to quiet them, but to an objective observer, the behavior of the two might well seem to be a political bromance in the making.
