New Hampshire is a pretty important Republican primary state, even more important than its only predecessor in Iowa. Iowa losers Ronald Reagan (1980), George H.W. Bush (1988), John McCain (2008), Mitt Romney (2012), and Donald Trump (2016) began their drives to the GOP nomination with a bounce-back win in New Hampshire.
So if you’re Ron DeSantis…start panicking.
A new poll from St. Anselm’s College this week showed the Florida Governor’s position having collapsed since its last survey in late March:
As new entrants have emerged since our last survey, Trump has gained 5 points of support and now sits just shy of a majority with 47%. Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen his support erode 10 points to 19%.
DeSantis’s biggest problem isn’t Trump so much as his other candidates. Chris Christie’s 6% represents what could have been potential DeSantis voters.
Additionally, one needs only to look at history to see that a big win in New Hampshire can come with barely a third of the vote: Trump secured the state with just 35%. If Trump maintains a strong lead, DeSantis is a weak second-place guy, and everyone else mushed together constitutes the rest; the former president is essentially a lock.
It doesn’t help that DeSantis is not wowing voters in the Granite State. For example, Team DeSantis came under criticism for scheduling its candidate for an event coinciding with a New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women fundraiser headlined by Trump. The counter-scheduling move was described in the media as “stupid,” a “stumble,” and a “rookie error.”
One would expect DeSantis to have a better appeal in New Hampshire than in the more MAGA, evangelical Iowa, but if he is lagging behind in what should be favorable territory, it spells doom for not only him, but for every other Trump challenger. If the most viable alternative fails, then perhaps the hype around a competitive GOP primary will turn out to have been all smoke and mirrors.
