At one time, it seemed more than plausible that Florida’s Republican governor Ron DeSantis would enter the Republican primary, outduel former president Donald Trump, secure the GOP nomination, and pose a serious challenge to current president Joe Biden.
But it seems DeSantis squandered his opportunity to make that happen.
Despite his attempts to be a sort of conservative model for the rest of the country–from restrictions on abortion to few restrictions on guns to battles with corporations and universities–poll after poll after poll shows his support among GOP primary voters is slipping when compared to Trump. While the former president’s indictment was obviously a divisive issue, he has rallied rank-and-file Republicans back to his banner. And history has shown that those who begin primaries with an early lead in polling have success once votes are cast.
The obvious problem that DeSantis has is that he is not an official candidate yet, but everyone treats him like he is. That creates cognitive dissonance in the minds of voters but also deprives his campaign of any serious legitimacy. DeSantis can travel around the country and even around the world, give speeches in other states, campaign for other candidates, and court donors, but at the end of the day he’s doing so as a governor and nothing more.
Of course, he’s biding his time, hoping that he can tout an impressive legislative record. But as it turns out, being a leader in a conservative echo chamber does nothing to convince voters you can lead the whole country. Abortion is perhaps the best example of how tone-deaf he is: a six-week ban isn’t popular in either major party. How will he attempt to woo moderates, independents, or disgruntled Democrats who draw the line at 12 or 15 weeks with that stain on his resume? That says nothing of his quagmire against Disney which has been a culture war that threatens to eclipse other aspects of his agenda.
Perhaps most crucially, DeSantis is not a charismatic speaker and this criticism of him is not new. He remains popular among Floridians, even more so than Trump, because charisma is not required when he has a relatively free hand to impose his will. On a debate stage against Trump (or even other candidates), what will make DeSantis stand out? And if Trump opts not to debate, then DeSantis gets no chance to rectify this crucial blind spot.
Had DeSantis entered the race when Trump was at his lowest, perhaps he could have worked his way into a better position. Instead, Trump’s command over the GOP, amazingly, remains almost fully intact and DeSantis is already looking like a has-been or never-was.
