It is hard to believe that the 2020 election is coming up on its third anniversary this fall. In several profound ways, the political environment and the nation have changed since then. In the context of 2024, these differences will be impactful on the man who is attempting to repeat his electoral success: Joe Biden.
When Biden launched his campaign in 2019, the initial months of primaries proved typical, if not a little chaotic, with such a large group of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination. By the time Biden had the whole affair wrapped up in early April (when Bernie Sanders dropped out) and was waiting to be crowned as the party’s nominee, COVID-19 changed everything. Biden campaigned virtually from his home in Delaware or at events that were designed with social distancing at the forefront.
His opponent, Donald Trump, did not adjust his campaign due to the virus, but in 2024 both candidates who end up in the general election will return to a traditional game plan. There’s the obvious fact, of course, that the pandemic is essentially a non-factor. Biden can freely travel across the country and make stump speeches and hold rallies and campaign with other figures in the Democratic orbit. But, as President, Biden has the leverage an incumbent usually enjoys when seeking reelection: he’s in charge and can shape policy with his words and actions, and barring something wild he won’t have to go through any sort of difficult primary like in 2020.
Nevertheless, there is concern about how Biden will fare running a traditional campaign. 2020 proved to be uniquely beneficial for him.
“If any presidential candidate benefited from the virtual mold of 2020, it was Joe,” said Democratic strategist Nicole Brener-Schmitz. “But he’s shown over the course of his presidency that he’s perfectly capable of the travel and the rallies and the events and the town halls. There shouldn’t be any concern about there being a ‘normal’ campaign and the American public going, ‘Oh no.’” Admittedly true for the past, but the question is, can he still do it?
Though Biden was criticized by Trump for taking the virus too seriously and (literally) campaigning from his basement, such flippant attacks along with his general flouting of public health guidelines played into Biden’s strategy of hammering the then-president over the response to the virus. Biden’s caution seemed not to matter in the end. In 2024, though, whoever the Republican nominee will be, they can have no such glaring weakness barring an exploitable emergency. The summer of protests in the wake of the George Floyd killing was also a boon to Biden and a negative for Trump that was out of anyone’s hands, and there’s no way to bet on something that unexpected and tragic to happen twice.
One downside of 2020, according to aides, was Biden’s inability to meet people on the campaign trail. But that may have been a blessing in disguise. In 2024, the emergence of the Biden who used to make the Obama White House cringe with his gaffes has the potential to come back. In December 2019, a man in New Hampshire suggested Biden was too old and also raised questions about his son’s overseas business ties. Biden called him a “damned liar” and challenged him to a pushup contest. With a Democratic base that is not excited to see him run again combined with concerns about his age, an unruly and undisciplined style on the trail in an era of sound-bite politics would make perfect fodder for those on the right. That’s not even mentioning that the President has not enjoyed robust approval ratings for the majority of his time in office.
One potential positive for the president is his ability to tout a record. With just slim majorities in Congress, Biden was able to get through a good number of his promises before the losses in the midterms, which even then were a better-than-expected result. In 2020, Biden had been out of government and was hammered by his opponents for having a long Senate career but what they perceived to be a lackluster portfolio of legislation compared to Trump’s in four years.
Either way, the biggest potential similarity or difference will be if Biden squares off with Trump (who has been running since the fall) or another Republican. Biden’s team has concentrated most on running again against his former rival in full confidence that the president would win a rematch. But the pitfalls of being overconfident in that assumption–when failing to take into consideration the key differences from 2020 to 2024, could prove dangerous, especially if the Republican nominee turns out to be a newer, younger face.
