In New York politics, the times, they are a-changin’. Democratic registration has taken a nosedive in the Empire State over the past four years, mirroring growing frustration with liberal policies and leaving the party searching for answers. From 2020 to 2024, Democratic enrollment fell 7% in New York City and 4% statewide, according to election data. Meanwhile, independents — namely elusive, non-committal voters — are on the rise.
In the city, progressive ranks shrank by 258,612, leaving 3.4 million registered party members. Statewide, the decline was 271,322. Republicans, on the other hand, saw a modest 2% boost, adding 67,483 voters to bring their total to just over 3 million. But the real story is the surge of non-affiliated voters, who grew by a staggering 12%, or 353,792 statewide, eclipsing the GOP in numbers. In New York City alone, the independents swelled by 80,134, nearly doubling the Republican count.
With more voters refusing to play team politics, both parties are scrambling to court this growing bloc. The 2024 presidential election offered a glimpse of what’s possible. President-elect Donald Trump claimed 44% of the vote in deep-blue New York — the best showing for a Republican since Reagan in 1988 — while Vice President Kamala Harris secured 56%. It’s hardly a red wave, but it’s a noticeable ripple.
John Mollenkopf, a political science professor at CUNY, sees a connection between the independent surge and Trump’s performance. “The rise in non-affiliated voters tracks closely with areas where Trump gained traction,” he told The New York Post. But he cautioned Republicans against uncorking the champagne just yet. “They’re not joining the GOP en masse. It’s an opening, not a slam dunk.”
Democrats still have a comfortable enrollment advantage — with 6.54 million registered voters, they outnumber Republicans and independents combined. But complacency could be dangerous. On Staten Island, for example, Democratic registration dropped by nearly 9,000, while Republicans added over 2,000 voters, and independents surged by 9,000 — a 12% jump.
Republican leaders aren’t missing a beat in spinning the narrative. “This is about frustration with one-party rule,” said Staten Island Assemblyman and GOP chair Michael Tannousis. State Republican Party chairman Ed Cox was even more blunt: “The Democrats are bleeding support. We’re gaining, and so are independents.”
Cox blamed the exodus on high taxes, population loss, and soft-on-crime policies like cashless bail. “New Yorkers are voting with their feet and their party registrations,” he added, with just a hint of schadenfreude.
State Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs acknowledges the warning signs but insists the sky isn’t falling. “We’ve heard the concerns,” he admitted. “Some voters aren’t happy with the party’s direction and messaging. We need to give them a better reason to stay with us.”
But Jacobs dismissed any notion that the GOP is gaining serious traction. He pointed to Democrats reclaiming four House seats in 2024 that they lost two years prior. “The Republican Party isn’t exactly winning hearts and minds here,” he said, adding with a smirk, “Two years ago, people wanted me gone. Now? Silence.”
