A Soviet spacecraft launched more than five decades ago is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere in early May, raising concerns among space experts over the possibility that some of its components may survive reentry and impact the surface.
Kosmos 482, a Venus lander launched by the USSR in 1972, has been orbiting Earth for 53 years after failing to escape low Earth orbit. Analysts now believe the probe could make an uncontrolled reentry between May 7 and May 13.
The probe was built to withstand the extreme heat and pressure of Venus’s atmosphere, meaning it could also endure the forces of reentry into Earth’s. With a mass just under 500 kilograms (about 1,100 pounds) and a diameter of one meter, the lander may not fully disintegrate, according to Marco Langbroek, a satellite tracking expert and professor of Space Situational Awareness at the Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands.
“The risk is not particularly high, but it’s not zero either,” Langbroek wrote on his personal blog. He estimates that if any part of the probe reaches the surface, it could strike at a velocity of 65 to 70 meters per second—roughly 240 kilometers per hour (150 mph)—causing damage comparable to a small meteorite impact.
Exactly when and where the spacecraft will fall remains unknown. Langbroek said modeling suggests reentry is most likely around May 10, with a margin of error of approximately three days. The potential impact zone spans a broad area between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude—covering most of the inhabited world.
Forecast accuracy is expected to improve as the reentry date approaches, though uncertainty will remain significant until shortly before the final descent.
The anticipated window for Kosmos 482’s return also coincides with major public events in Moscow. Between May 6 and 11, Russia will mark the 80th anniversary of victory in the Great Patriotic War with nationwide commemorations, including the Victory Tour in the capital.
