Timothy Dolan, the influential Archbishop of New York, was expected to retire at 75, in line with Vatican tradition. Instead, he now stands as a potential papal candidate, should conservative forces dominate the upcoming conclave.
If this were to happen, Donald Trump might even claim some indirect credit for helping elect a pope, given the fraught relationship between the Vatican and the U.S. during Pope Francis’ tenure.
A brief, diplomatic, and notably distant meeting between Pope Francis and U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Rome highlighted the tension between the two. The encounter, softened only by three chocolate eggs the Pope gifted to Vance’s children, was marked more by formality than warmth. Despite official niceties, the disconnect between Francis and Trump was palpable, underscored by the pope’s declining health.
The significance of the moment transcended the Vatican’s usual protocols, which initially excluded a meeting with Vance. That was most likely a deliberate move to underscore the divergence between Francis and Trump, particularly on immigration policies. Still, Vance, the last American leader to meet Francis, left with the pope’s words ringing in his ears — words that would hold greater weight after Francis passed away just hours later.
The relationship between Trump’s administration and the Vatican had long been strained, with tensions over immigration, civilian casualties in Gaza, and Trump’s equivocal stance on Ukraine and Russia.
Internally, the Holy See had been facing growing opposition from the more conservative wings of the U.S. episcopate. The upcoming conclave could alter the Vatican’s diplomatic course. In the months leading to his death, despite his declining health, Pope Francis had quietly removed figures from the Church he considered problematic. Notably, he excommunicated Cardinal Carlo Maria Viganò, who had called for Trump’s re-election and referred to Kamala Harris as “an infernal monster in service of Satan” over her stances on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
But Francis’ purges weren’t limited to Viganò. His push for a more inclusive Church, aimed at reversing the steady decline in believers, had extended to other conservative figures in the U.S. Church.
Among those affected was Timothy Dolan, who had delivered the prayer at Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2017. Having turned 75 in February, Dolan was expected to submit his resignation to the pope in keeping with Vatican customs. He did not. With Francis’ death, Dolan’s trajectory has shifted from retirement to a possible papal contender, positioning himself as the primary figure for conservatives seeking to reverse the direction set by the departing pontiff.
On Sunday, Dolan appeared on major U.S. networks, praising Pope Francis — whom he had never fully supported. However, in the coming conclave, Dolan could play a decisive role. The ongoing divide between factions of the clergy — those seeking a more traditional, identity-focused Church versus those advocating for greater inclusivity — could lead to a historic confrontation.
Trump may attend Pope Francis’ funeral, and if so, Dolan would likely be his preferred candidate. In what promises to be a contentious conclave, a number of Italian cardinals, who align more closely with the late pope’s vision of a “pope of the people,” could also emerge as key contenders.
