Astronomers are focusing their attention on asteroid 2024 YR4, a celestial body that, although with a minimal probability, could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032. At the moment, the estimated risk is 2%, but both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) continue to gather data to refine the predictions.
With an estimated diameter between 130 and 295 feet, the asteroid has been classified at level 3 on the Torino Scale, an index that identifies astronomical events with potential risks to our planet. Although the impact remains unlikely, its rating suggests attention from the scientific community. ESA has emphasized the importance of determining the exact size of the object with greater precision.
To improve the analysis, scientists will use the James Webb Space Telescope. This cutting-edge instrument is capable of detecting the asteroid’s infrared emissions, providing more accurate estimates compared to visible light observation. Studies will begin in March and continue until May, when 2024 YR4 will be brightest. Afterwards, the asteroid will temporarily disappear, only to reemerge in 2028.
If the space rock were to actually strike Earth, the damage would be limited to a regional level but still significant. According to NASA, potential impact areas include the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. Experts, however, reassure: “It would not be an event comparable to the one that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, but it could still have disastrous consequences in populated areas.”
Although the probability of impact remains quite low, research on 2024 YR4 highlights the importance of closely monitoring potentially hazardous celestial bodies. Thanks to increasingly sophisticated observation tools, science will be able to develop effective strategies to mitigate any potential effects in the event of a threat to the planet.
