As we approach the end of an electoral super-cycle worldwide, I shall try to analyze the main trends that emerged during this intense year of elections. Despite the high degree of variety in how elections work and are carried out in different countries and regions, some global patterns may be assessed. To this end, I will make use of the data monitored by International IDEA and gathered in its Global Elections Super-Cycle page.
First of all, a glance at the basic facts. Elections were held in different contexts, including some of the world’s most populous countries—Brazil, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russian Federation, and the United States—as well as the European Parliament elections in June. Not all elections enjoyed acceptable levels of electoral integrity and therefore several of them cannot be classified as democratic. Most elections this year have been legislative, while in Latin America they were all, except one (Venezuela), general elections, i.e. presidential and legislative. The most common electoral system for countries with legislative elections this year is Party-list Proportional Representation, known traditionally for facilitating the inclusion of more parties in legislatures. This was followed by First Past the Post—winner take all system.
In the 73 national elections that have taken place as of December 13, out of the 74 scheduled in 2024, over 1,638,800,000 ballots were cast, with an overall turnout—based on registered voters—of about 61%, compared to about 68 percent in 2023. However, this general data does not capture important details such as the participation rates of women, youth or minorities. Or the decision of opposition parties to boycott the election, as in Bangladesh, where voter turnout dropped by 38 percentage points compared to its most recent parliamentary election in 2018.
In other countries, where the contest was close, and results mattered, people felt motivated to participate because they perceived that their votes counted. For example, voter turnout in France reached the highest levels since 1997, and the Solomon Islands and Croatia were also among countries with the biggest increase in voter turnout compared to the most recent election. The Americas region has so far had the highest turnout (67%) while Europe has had the lowest one (50%).
On average, women’s representation in legislatures slightly decreased in 2024. Bhutan and Belarus were among the countries with the largest declines in the percentage of seats held by women. The biggest improvements were seen in Mongolia and Jordan, the Dominican Republic and the United Kingdom.
Gender quotas may be an important factor influencing this trend. More than half of countries with elections this year have gender quotas in the legislature. Among countries with legislated gender quotas, women hold an average of 30.5% of the seats in lower or single chambers in 2024, compared to 19.3% among countries without a legislated quota.
There are now slightly more female heads of state than there were at the start of the year. Only six countries with elections this year were led by women before going to the polls. This number has grown now to seven with the election of women in Mexico, Iceland, and North Macedonia, whereas female leaders in Slovakia and Taiwan were replaced by male elected leaders.
The age of the elected executive did not change much. About 26% of countries elected a younger executive and a total of 8 executives under 50 were elected in 2024, mainly in Africa with new younger leaders in Mozambique, Chad and Senegal. Donald Trump, the President-elect in the United States, is the oldest executive elected in 2024.
Party turnover, referring to the change in the party of the executive, an important indicator of democratic health, was a big story in some countries in 2024. Around the world, 16 elections resulted in party turnover, relatively low compared to recent years. Botswana’s general election on 30 October 2024 marked the end of nearly 58 years of uninterrupted rule by the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) as the opposition coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won a majority of the seats in parliament. President Mokgweetsi Masisi of the BDP graciously conceded defeat, committing to supporting the transition to a UDC government led by Duma Boko. In Latin America the opposition won in two of the five democratic elections (Panama and Uruguay).
However, some analysts described this phenomenon as an incumbent’s disadvantage, noting that starting in 2020 dissatisfied voters penalized the executives in office. Since 2020, 40 out of 54 parties in office in Western democracies have lost elections and the control of the executives. Some researchers interpreted this trend as a sort of “electoral long-COVID” that in the post-pandemic era affected the incumbents.
In some cases, the leaders and the coalitions in the executives have been weakened–as in India, the European parliamentary elections, France, Germany, Japan, and South Africa. In other cases, they lost the election and the opposition replaced them–as in the Republic of Korea, Senegal, United Kingdom, United States, and Uruguay (despite some notable exceptions—as the case of Mexico—should be stressed). A sense of frustration with political elites, perceived as disconnected from reality and serving their own interests, may explain this trend manifested across regions and irrespective of the political orientations of the incumbents along a right-left axis.
Some preliminary trends
In 2024 the elections have shown that electoral integrity is at risk because of the general increase in democratic backsliding around the world. Political legitimacy and an orderly political transition rely on credible elections, the consent of the losers and, in some cases, the buy-in from regional superpowers.
Of the 63 elections that took place between 1 January and 5 November 2024, 13% of elections saw opposition boycotts. I already mentioned the case of Bangladesh, where the main opposition boycotted the 2024 elections as it had in 2014. This election was later marked by upheaval, as student-led protests in August abruptly ended the ruling party’s tenure, with new elections planned in the coming years.
The acceptance of the results is another important challenge of the 2024 electoral super-cycle. Overall, in 15% of the 2024 elections a losing party or candidate publicly rejected the results. In 28% of cases, elections were followed by protests, with 20% (twelve elections, six of which in Africa) the protests following elections involved civilian deaths. Of the nine countries that saw a losing party or candidate reject election results, three occurred in Europe and another three in Africa, respectively. In Latin America, of the six presidential elections held in 2024, the only case of non-acceptance of the result followed by a climate of protests and violence is that of the fraudulent presidential elections of July 28 in Venezuela; a fraud that caused a serious political crisis that continues to this day.
What have we learned from this dense year of elections?
Two of the main results emerging from the conclusions of International IDEA’s annual Global State of Democracy Report, which this year focused on the integrity of elections, are: a) a decrease of electoral participation over the last fifteen years, and b) an increase in protests and riots around elections.
On the other hand, the profound changes we are seeing in the context, the information environment, and voting itself mean that we must rethink our assumptions about electoral processes, especially in the information ecosystem.
Thirty years ago, information was a good thing for electoral processes, affecting the rise of civic and voter education, with new public spaces opened by the end of apartheid, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the wave of democratization in Latin America. Now the information environment is considered as a high-risk area even in contexts like Finland, one of the countries with the highest digital literacy and trust in institutions. As a result of all this, the potential for the deliberate undermining of electoral processes is now a reality of organizing elections.
In conclusion, as is evident from the analysis of the 2024 global electoral super cycle, electoral integrity is under threat due to the widespread increase in democratic backsliding around the world. This major challenge requires electoral authorities to work on both preventing the risk of harassment of electoral officers, and to avoid a perception of partisanship in institutions whose independence and impartiality are essential elements to guarantee electoral processes with high levels of credibility and legitimacy.
Democracy is much more than just elections with integrity; however, the latter are a cornerstone of effective, inclusive, authentic and sustainable democratic processes.
