According to research published by The Lancet on November 14, the prevalence of overweight individuals in the United States has risen by 55% since 1990. However, the most alarming figure concerns young people aged 14 to 25: over the past 24 years, the increase has averaged more than 73% and exceeded 100% in some states. Nationwide, 15 million children and adolescents aged 5 to 14 are overweight or obese, along with 21.4 million individuals aged 15 to 24. And the numbers are not expected to decline: projections estimate that by 2050, there will be 260 million obese or overweight people in the United States, including adults and young people, with the latter group expected to increase by an additional 20%. The most affected states are located in the central U.S., including Arizona, Alabama, Minnesota, and Oklahoma.
The general increase in obesity is attributed to diets low in fruits and vegetables, low levels of physical activity, and excessive consumption of meat and processed foods. According to the CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), only 24% of Americans engage in regular physical activity, and just 31% consume fruits and vegetables more than once a week. These percentages are even lower when analyzed across ethnic groups: for example, only 33% of African Americans, 32% of Hispanics, and 28% of Native Americans consume fruits and vegetables regularly.
In their study on obesity, researchers from The Lancet collected weight and height data from 134 different sources, including national surveys, using both direct measurements and self-reported data adjusted for inaccuracies. Overweight and obesity were defined based on Body Mass Index (BMI) thresholds, with specific criteria for adults and those under 18 years old, following guidelines from the International Obesity Task Force. The accuracy rate of the data is approximately 95%.
While the overall results are alarming, the gender disparity is even more striking: in 1990, obesity was more prevalent among males. However, the findings published in The Lancet show an average increase of 74% among women, compared to 36.5% among men. The disparity is even greater among women under 25, with states like Arizona reporting a 156% increase, and a national average of 99%. By 2050, this gender gap is expected to widen further among both adults and adolescents.
Obesity increases the likelihood of numerous metabolic conditions and related complications, including hypertension, type 2 diabetes, liver disease, kidney disease, heart attacks, and strokes. It is also linked to infertility, cancer, and poorer mental health outcomes.
Moreover, obesity has a significant impact on public finances. According to the Joint Economic Committee of Republican members of Congress, as part of the 2024 Economic Report of the President, obesity entails substantial healthcare and economic costs. Over the next decade, additional medical expenses are estimated to range between $8.2 trillion and $9.1 trillion, with annual costs per individual varying by obesity severity: approximately $4,043 for moderate obesity (Classes 1 and 2) and $9,895 for severe obesity (Class 3). On the economic front, a loss of $10.9–11.9 trillion in GDP is projected over the next decade due to reduced workforce productivity and premature mortality, leading to a revenue loss of $1.93–2.12 trillion in tax income.
Finally, a critical aspect to consider is the disparity in overweight or obesity prevalence across social, cultural, and ethnic strata within the U.S. population. According to the CDC, non-Hispanic Black adults have the highest prevalence of obesity at 49.9%, followed by Hispanic adults at 45.6%, non-Hispanic white adults at 41.4%, and non-Hispanic Asian adults at 16.1%. Similar trends are evident in education levels: obesity is most prevalent among adults with a high school diploma or some college education (46.4%), followed by those with less than a high school diploma (40.1%), and those with a college degree or higher (34.2%).
