Congress is in the balance as well as the presidency on election day tomorrow, with New York playing an outsize role in whether or not Democrats regain Congress after losing the majority in the 2022 midterms. While the party exceeded expectations overall in those elections, averting a widely-predicted “red wave” of GOP victories, New York State’s Democratic party suffered heavy blows, with 4 unexpected losses in House races. These losses were a major factor in Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives, where they currently hold a majority of just 8 seats. In 2024, 3 congressional races on the ballot in New York tomorrow could help tip the scales back into the Democratic party’s favor, or conversely, signal a second dismal failure in a row for the state party’s leadership.
3rd Congressional District: One of the most closely-watched races is that of Tom Suozzi, who won the seat formerly occupied by Republican George Santos after he was expelled from Congress with less than a year in office. His Republican opponent is Mike LiPetri jr., a one-term state assemblyman and lawyer whose campaign has focused on what he perceives as lax policies on migration. “Open border Democrats like Kamala Harris and Tom Suozzi created a migrant crime wave that is destroying our communities,” he wrote last month on X. Suozzi is running a centrist campaign that overlaps on policy with his opponent, having declared at the DNC this summer that the “border is broken.” Despite the similarities, forecasters are predicting a Suozzi victory.
17th Congressional District: Republican representative Michael Lawler will be facing off against Mondaire Jones, who represented the district from 2021 to 2023 and lost the seat in a 13-way primary after redistricting in 2022. Both candidates have emphasized public safety and fighting antisemitism, as well as lowering taxes for their constituents restore the State and Local Tax deductions (SALT). Both also take an aggressive stance on immigration and border policy, encouraging increased enforcement. The main policy that distinguishes these candidates is Jones’ emphasis on protecting the right to an abortion. The most recent analyses from forecasters are split between calling the race a toss-up or predicting a Lawler victory.
19th Congressional District: This race pits Republican incumbent Mike Molinaro against Josh Riley, a rematch of the 2022 race in the same district, which Molinaro won in a tight 50.8%-49.2% victory. Both candidates are promising tax cuts to the middle class, with Molinaro emphasizing mental health and energy policy, while Riley has focused on tougher border policy and by extension the fentanyl crisis. What distinguishes the candidates most is their differing career paths, as Molinaro has been in government in various capacities since he was elected mayor of Tivoli when he was just 18 years old, while Riley has pursued a legal career and worked in various positions in the federal government, including as general counsel to former Senator Al Franken. Analysts show this race as a virtual toss-up.
