With the U.S. presidential election around the corner, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a near tie in Michigan. The latest Fox News poll shows Harris barely leading Trump, 48% to 46%, but the race tightens to a 49% dead heat when third-party candidates, like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are taken out of the equation.
Trump’s once-solid margin in Michigan has narrowed, thanks in part to the economy performing better than anticipated. The shift in economic expectations has also pushed other issues like abortion and election integrity into focus, both areas where Harris holds an edge. Poll results show Harris up by 18 points on abortion and by 10 points on election integrity.
Demographic divides are also clear. Harris leads strongly among women, younger voters, and those in urban and suburban areas, while Trump dominates with men, white voters without college degrees, and rural voters. However, Harris is struggling to replicate Biden’s former support among Black voters, with 81% currently backing her—12 points less than Biden received in 2020.
Harris’s appeal lies largely in her connection to middle-class concerns and a reputation for stability, giving her a 10-point lead on issues of temperament. Meanwhile, Trump’s image as a powerful leader continues to resonate, keeping him close in this tight contest.
For both candidates, Michigan is essential, though Trump arguably has more at stake. Pollster Daron Shaw notes Harris has made gains with women on economic issues, yet Trump’s focus remains on defending Michigan’s auto industry—a subject with deep roots in the state’s economy and identity.
