Kamala Harris may have gained momentum among Black voters since Biden’s departure from the race, but she’s still far from securing the broad support her predecessor enjoyed in 2020. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows nearly 80% of Black voters intend to back her, marking a small increase from Biden’s July figures. However, the gap between this and Biden’s resounding 90% support in 2020 could seriously undermine her prospects in crucial battleground states.
For decades, Democrats have relied on near-unanimous support from Black voters, driven not only by the party’s progressive rhetoric but also by a deep mistrust of Republican alternatives. Harris, poised to make history as the first Black woman president, should theoretically ride this wave of loyalty. Yet, the tide appears to be shifting. With Trump strategically courting Black men through targeted messaging and events, the former president is seeing an unexpected boost in support, with 15% of Black voters now leaning in his direction, up from 9% four years ago.
Black voters, long heralded as the backbone of the Democratic Party, are becoming increasingly critical of the party’s inability to deliver tangible results. Many younger voters feel particularly neglected, with a substantial number expressing skepticism about Democrats’ promises. Although Harris still commands strong support from Black women, with 83% backing her, the gender gap among Black voters is now more pronounced. Her support among Black men has seen a sharper decline compared to Biden’s 2020 figures.
Yet there’s a glimmer of hope for Democrats. More Black voters now believe the Biden-Harris administration has helped them, compared to earlier in the year. This could give Harris some leverage as she ramps up outreach efforts, including her recent tour of historically Black colleges and media appearances tailored to engage younger Black voters. The campaign’s focus on connecting with faith communities and using nontraditional platforms like podcasts is also seen as an attempt to reclaim lost ground.
On key issues like crime and immigration, however, Harris faces a more complicated landscape. While many Black voters continue to view her more favorably than Trump, a notable proportion agree with Republican positions on issues such as border security and crime rates, signaling a growing ideological split.
Harris’s ability to retain Black voter support may ultimately hinge on the enduring perception that Democratic leadership benefits people of color more than any alternative.
