On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden is set to stand before the United Nations and deliver a speech framed by his administration as a reaffirmation of America’s role on the global stage. The speech, they say, will push for collective global action and highlight his vision for tackling the world’s most pressing crises. According to John F. Kirby, the national security spokesman, Biden will emphasize “how the world should come together to solve these big problems and defend fundamental principles.”
Behind these words, however, lies a moment of deep uncertainty — both for Biden and for the global order he aims to influence.
Biden’s speech will unfold at a time when global tensions, from the war in Ukraine to the escalating violence in Gaza– and now also Lebanon–and the economic rivalry with China, are intertwining with the political dynamics back home. His administration is balancing multiple fronts: trying to broker peace in Gaza, where violence threatens to spiral further, and making pivotal decisions in Ukraine, including whether to provide advanced American weaponry capable of striking deep into Russian territory. The president has pushed hard for continued diplomatic efforts, but as U.S. elections loom, what will America’s role in the world look like in the years ahead?
The political landscape in the U.S. only complicates the questions. Vice President Kamala Harris has echoed much of Biden’s foreign policy philosophy, particularly the importance of strategic alliances, but as she ramps up her campaign efforts, her specific policy directions are only just starting to take shape. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump remains steadfast in his call for a more isolationist approach, reviving his familiar “America First” rhetoric.
Amid these domestic dynamics, the leaders gathered in New York this week are keenly aware that U.S. foreign policy may be at a turning point. Jon B. Alterman, a prominent Middle East analyst in Washington, captures the sentiment shared by many of these leaders: “For a world that is currently watching a war in Ukraine and a war in Gaza and the potential eruption of a war in Lebanon, where the United States is on this issue is both profoundly important and profoundly beyond their control”, he told The New York Times. The U.S. presidential election, he notes, is top of mind for foreign leaders as they seek to anticipate which direction America will take. “Figuring out where America is headed after November’s elections is one of the most important parts of their strategic calculus,” he added.
The stakes are particularly high for Europe and the Middle East. The war in Ukraine, now grinding through its third year, has forced European nations to reconsider their reliance on American power. Many European leaders, while grateful for the support Biden has provided Ukraine, are quietly questioning whether they need to move toward a more self-sufficient security strategy. The specter of another Trump presidency only accelerates these debates. During his time in office, Trump repeatedly questioned the value of NATO and pulled the U.S. out of critical agreements, including the Paris climate accords, leaving many European allies uneasy about what a second Trump term might bring.
In the Middle East, the picture is equally fraught. Biden’s unyielding support for Israel in its ongoing conflict with Hamas has left him isolated from some international partners, even as the violence has shown no signs of abating. His diplomatic efforts to quell the fighting, including a push to contain the potential spread of conflict to Lebanon, have so far fallen short. Hezbollah’s increasing involvement, along with Israeli retaliatory strikes, has sparked widespread fear of a broader regional war.
Foreign leaders are scrambling for face time with America’s current and would-be leaders. The United Arab Emirates’ president Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed has met with both Biden and Harris, as the UAE looks to solidify its role amid growing violence in Israel and Sudan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to meet with Biden at the White House later this week, following his address to the U.N. General Assembly. Zelensky is also set to meet with Harris, as he seeks to bolster his ties with both the current administration and potential future leadership in the U.S. Meanwhile, rumors of a meeting between Trump and Zelensky swirl, though nothing has been confirmed.
Trump, for his part, has made no effort to hide his ongoing diplomatic engagements. In recent months, he has hosted a steady stream of foreign dignitaries at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, with the most recent being Qatar’s leadership. Following the meeting, Trump took to social media, praising the emir’s leadership and reiterating his commitment to Middle Eastern peace, while also hinting at a stronger relationship should he return to the White House. “He has proven to be a great and powerful leader of his country,” Trump wrote, “advancing on all levels at record speed.”
The contrast between Biden’s steady, multilateral diplomacy and Trump’s more transactional, unilateral approach could not be starker. The leaders of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are left to navigate these two radically different visions of American leadership. On the one hand, Biden’s focus on global partnerships reflects a continuation of the U.S.’s role as a stabilizing force in international politics. On the other, Trump’s potential return raises the specter of an America that once again looks inward, upending alliances and treaties that have long underpinned global order.
