Few events in recent American history have been as theatrically charged as last week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. After surviving an assassination attempt, Former President Donald Trump presented himself as a changed man, one who had come face to face with death and whose life view had been transformed.
People spoke of “a new softness to Donald Trump” who described him with words like “existential,” “serene,” “emotional” and even “spiritual.” As a modern-day philosopher-hero ready to (metaphorically) take over the White House. From the start, Politico questioned the new image’s authenticity and asked, “how long will it last”? As it turns out, not very long, not for him, and not for the public’s perception of him. After a few days, Trump went back to what he has always been: a combative and abrasive competitor.
Did the new image that he wished to cultivate alter the public perception? Not really, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The poll, conducted with 1,743 U.S. adults from July 19 to 22, reveals a nation largely unmoved by the recent theatrics. Only 28% of respondents believe the shooting changed Trump for the better, while a majority (51%) thinks it either hasn’t changed him at all (44%) or has made him worse (7%).
In spite of high drama and emotional pleas, Trump’s numbers show no significant post-convention “bounce.” In a head-to-head matchup with Democratic frontrunner Vice President Kamala Harris, both Trump and Harris sit at 46%.
Historically, conventions have been pivotal moments, often giving candidates a bump in the polls. Not this time. Trump’s favorable rating has inched up slightly from 39% to 43% since his June 27 debate with President Biden, while his unfavorable rating has dipped from 56% to 53%. These shifts are minor, reflecting more of a return to his typical numbers rather than a significant breakthrough.
If conventions normally move the needle, an assassination attempt should create a wave of sympathy for the victim. Yet this did not happen for Trump either.
The GOP base, predictably loyal, showed a more notable reaction. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Trump’s favorable rating climbed from 83% to 88%. The assassination attempt did lead to a 5-point increase in Americans rating Trump “very favorably” (from 21% to 26%), hitting the highest mark since late 2020. But again, this surge was confined to Republicans, leaving Democrats (2%) and independents (10%) largely unaffected.
For context, consider Ronald Reagan’s approval ratings after his 1981 assassination attempt. Reagan’s numbers soared by 7 points, reflecting significant gains across party lines. Those were different times, though, before partisan polarization became the norm. Today, Americans stick to their political allegiances regardless of dramatic events.
Such entrenched partisanship was evident in reactions to the RNC. Approximately 36% of Americans rated the convention as excellent or good, while 35% rated it as fair or poor. A substantial 28% didn’t follow it at all. Trump’s speech, oscillating between calls for unity and sharp attacks on political adversaries, left Americans divided: 26% found it mostly unifying, 25% mostly divisive. Only 30% watched some or all of the convention, with Republicans making up nearly two-thirds of the viewers.
Despite his claims of being a changed man after the shooting, after a few days it became business as usual for Trump, who has attacked Harris as a “radical” and shifted the acrimony and insults that he previously directed at Joe Biden to his new opponent in the race for the White House.
