Nearly seven months after the onset of the war in Gaza, the situation remains dire with no clear resolution in sight. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has reached catastrophic levels and while both sides have suffered losses, whereas Israel has lost 1,332 people, there are approximately 40,000 dead Palestinians. The protracted conflict has drawn comparisons to the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, particularly in regard to the disproportionate death toll and the complexities and challenges of achieving a definitive end to hostilities.
Initially, Israel made significant tactical advances following a devastating aerial bombardment and subsequent ground invasion. However, the conflict has since devolved into a grinding struggle against a resilient insurgency. The Israeli public is growing weary, and internal political tensions are rising. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, have expressed concerns over a prolonged re-occupation of Gaza.
Netanyahu’s promise of a “total victory” to dismantle Hamas and secure the return of hostages remains elusive. His vision is shared among IDF officials, “If you don’t drain the swamp, you cannot deal with the mosquitoes,” said retired General Amir Avivi. However, the feasibility of such a transformation remains highly questionable given the current circumstances.
Several scenarios have been proposed for Gaza’s future, each fraught with challenges and uncertainties. A full-scale military occupation, though supported by some hardliners in Netanyahu’s coalition, is widely opposed due to the immense cost and responsibility it would place on Israel. A lighter occupation with local Palestinian administration, aided by international support, appears equally improbable. “Efforts to reach out to Palestinian businessmen and powerful families have ended in catastrophe,” noted Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst.
Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, have rejected involvement in such plans, preferring instead to support a U.S.-backed proposal for a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza with assistance from Arab and Muslim nations. However, this hinges on Israel’s commitment to a credible path to Palestinian statehood, a scenario Netanyahu has dismissed.
The Biden administration finds itself entangled in the conflict, contrary to its initial aim of reducing U.S. involvement in the Middle East. The war has reactivated various Iranian proxy groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, complicating U.S. foreign policy and security interests. “Instead of reducing U.S. involvement, the Biden administration now faces a wide range of threats in the region,” said a senior U.S. official.
The U.S. vision for Gaza involves eliminating Hamas’ military capabilities while supporting a ceasefire that includes humanitarian aid and the release of hostages. However, the insistence on Hamas’ total defeat before ending the war is increasingly seen as unrealistic. “A military victory for Israel looks increasingly unachievable,” admitted Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.
As the conflict drags on, the notion of a long-term solution becomes more tenuous. The idea of involving an international coalition to oversee Gaza’s civil affairs, as suggested by Benny Gantz, faces significant hurdles. The potential for renewed hostilities remains high, and the humanitarian crisis deepens with each passing day.
The future of Gaza remains uncertain, with the international community struggling to find a viable solution. As both sides brace for continued conflict, the need for a comprehensive and realistic approach to peace has never been more urgent.
