As the November election looms, the world is beginning to gear up for the possibility of a second Trump presidency. Among the executives most attentive to U.S. electoral developments is Mexico, which is preparing for its own presidential election, which is scheduled for next month.
Many of America’s friends – and foes alike – were taken aback by Mr. Trump’s victory when he took office in 2016, and his menacing diplomacy drove them to change course quickly. However, they now have time to consider how the election of the GOP guru will alter the relationships that the Biden administration has worked so hard to restore, and they are frantically getting ready for a revolution.
Having learned how fundamental personal connections are to Trump, two people involved with the discussions said that Mexico’s ruling party is even evaluating different candidates to name as the country’s next foreign minister, contingent on whether Trump or Biden appears to have the best chance of winning.
Most experts anticipate that Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate of the ruling “Morena” party, would be elected president and begin office in October, one month ahead of the U.S. election. Many believe she will appoint the experienced Marcelo Ebrard as her foreign minister. Especially if polls indicate that the U.S. Republican would win.
During Trump’s presidency, Ebrard held the position of foreign minister and was well-liked back home for handling relations with the U.S. administration.
According to several sources, Mexican government representatives have already been meeting with individuals close to Trump on matters such as immigration and the smuggling of synthetic opioids like fentanyl into the United States – issues where Mexico may come under increased pressure should the New York tycoon reappear in the White House.
The presumed Republican contender for president in 2024 has allegedly proposed several plans to attack or invade Mexico in reaction to the American fentanyl epidemic and to “wage WAR” on the drug cartels. According to his former defense secretary, Mark Esper, Trump even considered bombing the drug laboratories run by the cartels and then maybe blaming the strikes on another nation when he was president.
In private, Trump has also expressed support for the notion of surreptitiously deploying special operations teams, with or without the approval of the Mexican government. These groups would be entrusted with a variety of objectives, including the assassination of the top enforcers and leaders of the most infamous and potent drug gangs in Mexico.
However, it seems improbable that the Mexican government would approve of Trump’s threat to direct the Pentagon to “make appropriate use of Special Forces, cyber warfare, and other overt and covert actions to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure, and operations.”
Mexican officials also spoke about the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was last revised in 2020 during the Trump administration and is up for revision in 2026. In recent statements, Trump hailed his rewriting of that arrangement.
