The Biden administration found itself grappling with the possibility of a nuclear-armed confrontation as tensions escalated in Ukraine in 2022. Insider accounts, detailed in the upcoming book “The Return of Great Powers,” reveal a United States meticulously planning for a scenario that seemed plucked from history’s most dire warnings: a nuclear strike by Russia on Ukraine. The whispers of war grew louder as Russian forces encountered significant setbacks, particularly around the strategic city of Kherson, amplifying fears that President Putin might resort to nuclear options as a deterrent.
As Ukrainian forces advanced, threatening to encircle Russian troops, the U.S. intelligence community gathered unsettling indicators. The confluence of Russia’s military vulnerabilities with its alarmist propaganda about a Ukrainian “dirty bomb” hinted at a desperate Kremlin possibly contemplating a nuclear strike. Such a move, U.S. officials worried, could serve a dual purpose: a show of ultimate strength and a smokescreen for escalating the conflict to unprecedented levels.
Responding to these harrowing prospects, the Biden administration engaged in dual tracks of diplomacy and deterrence. Behind closed doors, urgent dialogues unfolded with both allies and traditionally non-aligned powers like India and China, aiming to form a cohesive front against the nuclear brinkmanship. This international effort sought to remind Russia of the global pariah status that would accompany any nuclear aggression, leveraging the influence of countries that Moscow might pause to consider.
Simultaneously, the U.S. dismissed the Russian narrative of a Ukrainian “dirty bomb” as unfounded, seeing it as a potential prelude to Russian nuclear action rather than a legitimate threat. This period of geopolitical chess underscored not only the precariousness of modern conflict but also the intricate web of alliances and influence that can deter or provoke global crises.
As 2023 unfolds, President Biden’s acknowledgment of the ongoing nuclear threat underscores the lingering shadows of 2022’s near-miss. Putin’s rhetoric, alongside the strategic positioning of nuclear assets in Belarus, keeps the world watchful and wary.
