In a recent interview, White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan reminded us that Putin appears to be counting on waning Western support to win the war in Ukraine; judging by NATO official reports that Ukraine will run out of ammunition early into 2023, as well as shifting U.S. temperament, it’s looking more and more likely that he will get his way.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, Europe has struggled to meet demands for munitions and weapon production; Kurdten is just one example of recent government investment in the European Union’s efforts to turn the tide of the war. Danish officials state that the goal is to produce enough munitions to satisfy their own military quotas and then to be able to export the surplus abroad.
Nestled at Denmark’s northern tip, the Krudten ammunition plant was once a key supplier for the Danish military. After years of inactivity post its 2008 sale during defense budget reductions caused by the global recession, it is now back under government control. The Danish government repurchased the property last October at $2.8 million, paying only $200,000 more than they sold it for in 2008. The move signifies a renewed focus on defense readiness and will require substantial investment for renovation and modernization.
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen highlighted the strategic importance of this decision. He pointed out the necessity of bolstering ammunition supplies in Europe, especially against the backdrop of Russia’s intensified military production. “Supporting countries to enhance their production capabilities is a key strategy within the European Union,” Poulsen noted.
This urgency is mirrored in NATO’s concerns about potential ammunition shortages for Ukraine, especially with political impediments such as U.S. Congressional opposition to further funding and Hungary’s veto of an EU financial aid package.
The Danish government plans to contract a private entity to run Krudten, a model akin to the American system where private firms operate government-owned ammunition facilities. This setup is designed to adapt swiftly to changing market needs. For instance, the U.S. has more than doubled its production of 155-millimeter caliber rounds since the onset of the Ukraine conflict.
Europe’s path to enhancing its defense manufacturing capabilities is fraught with challenges, including varied economic landscapes, budget limitations, and diverse regulatory frameworks. To facilitate this process, the EU is incentivizing collective ammunition procurement and considering relaxing certain industry regulations. Despite these efforts, the E.U. will likely fall far short of delivering the one million 155-millimeter rounds it set out to produce in 2023.
The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed dissatisfaction with the effectiveness of current collaborative defense mechanisms. Joachim Finkielman, of the Danish Defense and Security Industries Association, acknowledged Denmark’s reliance on imported military ammunition, stressing the critical need for increased domestic production capacity.
Finland, taking proactive steps, announced a doubling of its production capabilities for heavy ammunition and explosives, backed by a $131 million investment. Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen emphasized the move as a testament to Finland’s commitment to both Ukraine’s support and strengthening its defense sector.
Russia has significantly ramped up its military production, dedicating a substantial portion of its national budget to defense. This streamlined production, a result of Russia’s centralized governance and oligarchic system, starkly contrasts with the complex bureaucratic and legislative hurdles faced by European nations.
Estonia’s Interior Minister, Lauri Laanemets, observed the all-encompassing nature of Russia’s current arms production efforts. Ukraine, too, is working to revive its defense industry, seeking collaborations with Western countries to enhance its production capabilities and forge new defense trade agreements.
