Does Russia have its eye on a European conquest?
According to “European intelligence” if the 2024 United States presidential election should produce anything but a clear-cut and unchallenged result, Russia may launch an attack on Europe.
The German tabloid Bild reported on Dec. 23, citing an anonymous European intelligence source, that any ambiguous outcome of the presidential election might provoke another version of January 6, 2021, and the United States might find itself “without a leader” during the period of upheaval that might follow.
The intelligence service source contends that a potential Russian strike on Europe could occur within the presidential transitionary period that spans three months, from the November 2024 election day to the subsequent inauguration in January 2025, especially if Donald Trump—widely seen as sympathetic to Russia– should be elected for a second term.
The sources further suggest as supporting evidence of this theory that throughout his campaign for the presidency, former President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the level of aid President Joe Biden’s administration provides to Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky has also previously warned that the result of the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election can “very strongly” influence the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
There has already been concern of such an eventuality among some European leaders. The German think tank DGAP has issued prior warnings to Western nations, suggesting that Russia might launch a direct attack against NATO in “as little as six to 10 years.” While Poland’s national security agency has expressed a more urgent concern, estimating that Russia could potentially attack NATO in less than 36 months.
Polish officials have previously suggested that Russia might target a NATO alliance member in Eastern Europe, including countries such as Poland, Estonia, Romania, and Lithuania.
Some are skeptical of such a theory, pointing out the unanticipated difficulty that Russia is currently having in subduing Ukraine. What Russia had anticipated as being an easy victory over Ukraine has in fact turned into a viciously contended conflict that is draining it of human and military resources. The question then is: how could Russia take on a bigger and more powerful adversary such as Europe, if it cannot subdue Ukraine?
