When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced in April, that he was running for the presidency as a Democrat, his family were in turmoil.
Casting aside the famous Kennedy clannishness, they spoke out against his candidacy– and in no uncertain terms: in their opinion, he was not the right man and his opposition to the presumable Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, would hurt the party and hurt America.
Ahead of his brother’s announcement in April, Chris said in an interview with POLITICO there was “robust intra-family dialogue” about Robert running. “All of us shared with him our candid thoughts. It’s what a big Irish Catholic family will do.”
The Kennedys did not give up easily; they continued to try to convince him to drop out of the race. Chris said members of the family confronted him at large family events at Hyannis Port and in Cape Cod. They brought it up with him over text chains and in Zoom meetings. “None of us like conflict among ourselves,” Chris said, but when they do, “it’s full contact.”
Kerry said at the time, “I love my brother Bobby, but I do not share or endorse his opinions on many issues, including the COVID pandemic, vaccinations, and the role of social media platforms in policing false information.” Rory, too, told CNN, “This is a difficult situation for me. I love my older brother Bobby. He has extraordinary charisma and is a very gifted speaker… But due to a wide range of Bobby’s positions, I’m supporting President Biden.”
Now Bobby Kennedy has announced that he has switched his party affiliation and will be running as an independent, withdrawing his bid as a Democrat. Most of the members of his family are equally unhappy about this new development.
This time his siblings have denounced him in a collective message signed by Kerry and three other siblings, joining other Kennedy family members in speaking out against him.
“The decision of our brother Bobby to run as a third-party candidate against Joe Biden is dangerous to our country,” a post shared by Rory read on Instagram.
In what amounts to a blanket repudiation of Bobby’s political ideology, they wrote: “Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment. Today’s announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country.”
But how will Kennedy’s run as an independent change the dynamics of the 2024 race and which candidate will it hurt more?
Some analysts argue that Kennedy will take votes away from Trump, especially in swing states where the race is tight. They point out that Kennedy’s positions on issues such as health care, immigration, social media and foreign policy are closer to Trump’s than to Biden’s, and that some conservative voters may prefer Kennedy’s outsider status and charisma over Trump’s divisive and polarizing style. Many Trump loyalists are simply suffering from “Trump exhaustion” and Kennedy’s political stances are a good alternative.
Chris Kennedy disagrees with his siblings about the effect his party switch may have on Biden’s run: “We’re hopeful that he pulls support from President Trump and that he helps Joe Biden in the end,” and sees his brother’s exit as “a sign of strength” for Biden. “There’s no other candidate thinking about running who has as much charisma as Bobby. If Bobby couldn’t beat Biden, I don’t think anyone can.”
Ultimately, the effect of Kennedy’s run on Biden’s chances will depend on several factors, such as the level of voter turnout, the state of the economy, global events such as the wars in Ukraine and Israel, and the occurrence of any unforeseen events or scandals.
As of now, most polls show Biden and Trump in a virtual tie in a hypothetical run, with Kennedy trailing behind by a significant margin. However, with more than a year to go before the election, anything could happen.
What everyone seems to agree on is that Kennedy has no chance of winning the race, yet his candidacy may play a crucial role in its outcome.
