It is hard to understand what will come out of the much-scrutinized trip North-Korean leader Kim Jong-un took to Russia, to see President Vladimir Putin. Things seem to go well: Mr. Kim has prolonged his visit by several days and a Kremlin spokesman declared that Mr. Putin “gratefully” accepted an invitation to visit North Korea.
Not much is known however, about the issue that most concerns the Western world– that is, the military cooperation between the Communist regime and Mr. Putin’s Russia, with Moscow possibly buying weapons and ammunition for its war on the Ukrainian front (Russian factories can’t produce enough to compensate for those used in Ukraine). Technically, such dealings with North Korea, a country under UN sanctions for its nuclear program, are not allowed. Russia signed all the UN resolutions against Pyongyang. But circumstances have changed with the invasion of Ukraine. The United States – and their European allies – do not doubt that the Kremlin will not be stopped by such mundane considerations. Today, Mr. Putin cannot leave Russia because there is an international warrant against him. The fight against “Western Imperialism” is paramount for both leaders.
They discussed military cooperation on Wednesday, following the warm reception at the new Vostochny space center in the Russian Far East. They smiled, they shook hands, they exchanged symbolic gifts: Kim received a glove from a spacesuit and a Russian-made rifle, Putin got a North-Korean made gun. The North Korean weapons industry is flourishing – although the population is hungry – but Pyongyang still has not managed to put into orbit a spy satellite, one of Kim’s fond wishes. Russia might help with space technology (and it could also provide sorely needed food aid).
The two leaders also drank Russian wines at a lavish banquet, in a show of mutual support. Mr. Kim is now spending time visiting aircraft factories, shipyards, and other military sites. He is a great believer in rituals and ceremonies, the scion of a dynasty started by his grandfather Kim Il Sung and perpetuated by his father Kim Jong Il. There is no other country in the world today where the cult of the reigning man and the empty swagger of dictatorship are stronger, complete with national parades, well trained children, show of weapons–all of course amplified by national TV. One hour before the meeting, Pyongyang fired two ballistic missiles off its eastern coast – just because. But these days, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is doing its best to compete.
However, will any concrete deals be sealed? For now, the only acknowledged step is the possible cooperation on Kim’s space ambitions – which might just fall short of international disapproval. North Korea’s space projects are distinctly military (it failed twice to put a spy satellite out there this year), but one thing is helping Kim to spy on his enemies, another entirely would be helping him to get missiles and nuclear weapons banned by the UN Security Council (of which Russia is a permanent member).
Any agreement on these matters will not be made public. The United States is worried: North Korea has nuclear warhead-topped intercontinental ballistic missiles, but not the technology needed to fly them to the US coast. The US and Russia, however, do know how to fly a missile.
Could Putin entirely jeopardize his position, while giving away precious space technological secrets? Or is he flattering Kim’s ego with a lavish show of support, while using North Korea merely as a backup supplier of much needed ammunition?
Lavish it was: giving Kim a tour of the Space center with brass marching bands and red carpets.
North Korea’s main ally and main commercial partner (up to 95% of its trade income) is still China, not Russia, but Putin also sent a clear message to the West. Four years ago, in 2019, Kim and Putin had met for the first time, also in Russia, two months after Kim’s nuclear diplomacy with then-U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed.
Now, whatever the outcome, it appears clearly that the Ukrainian war has pushed two pariah States in each other’s arms.
