To many of us, rice is only one among many foods available on a daily base. It is a choice, not a necessity. But for many in the developing world, it can mean the difference between health and malnutrition; indeed, in some extreme cases, between life and death.
Global food security is already under threat since Russia put an end to an agreement allowing Ukraine to export wheat. A balance that was already precarious is now reaching a tipping point thanks to the El Nino weather phenomenon that is hampering rice production. The result is that rice prices are soaring — Vietnam’s rice export prices, for instance, have reached a 15-year high, putting the most vulnerable people in some of the poorest nations at risk.
India, the world’s largest exporter of rice by far, said last month that it would ban some rice shipments. It’s an effort by the world’s most populous nation to control domestic prices ahead of a key election year — but it has amplified the impact of other factors on the shortage of rice on a global level. The gap that India’s decision has created is of around 9.5 million metric tons (10.4 tons) of rice that people around the world need–roughly a fifth of global exports–but that they will not be getting.
The world is at an “inflection point,” said Beau Damen, a natural resources officer with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization based in Bangkok.
Even before India’s restrictions, countries already were frantically buying rice in anticipation of scarcity later when the El Nino hit, creating a supply crunch and spiking prices.
The fear is that the situation can become even worse if India’s ban on non-basmati rice creates a domino effect, with other countries following suit, not necessarily for political motives, but to protect their domestic supply. Already, the United Arab Emirates has suspended rice exports to maintain its domestic stocks. Another threat is if extreme weather damages rice crops in other countries.
An El Nino is a natural, temporary and occasional warming of part of the Pacific Ocean that shifts global weather patterns, and climate change is making them stronger. Scientists expect the one underway to expand to supersized levels, and, in the past, they have resulted in extreme weather ranging from drought to flooding.
The impact would be felt worldwide, not only in the traditionally rice-dependent nations of the past. Rice consumption in Africa has been growing steadily, but few of the countries produce any. Nations with growing populations like Senegal are among the few that have been trying to grow more of their own rice.
Amadou Khan, a 52-year-old unemployed father of five in Dakar, says his children eat rice with every meal except breakfast, which they often have to skip when he’s out of work. “I am just getting by — sometimes, I’ve trouble taking care of my kids,” he said.
Asian countries, where 90% of the world’s rice is grown and eaten, are struggling with production. The Philippines, the second-largest importer of rice after China, was carefully managing water in anticipation of less rain amid the El Nino when Typhoon Doksuri battered its northern rice-producing region, damaging $32 million worth of rice crops — an estimated 22% of its annual production.
India’s rice restrictions also were motivated by erratic weather: the monsoon has been increasingly unpredictable, and the anticipated effects of El Nino meant that the partial ban was needed to stop food prices from rising, Indian food policy expert Devinder Sharma said.
At present there is little clarity about the outcome of the situation. Much depends on the decisions that India will make, the war in Ukraine, and the severity of El Nino.
