A recent study based on updated US census data reveals that Gen Z Americans, born between 1997 and 2012, will mark the final generation with a white majority. This shift will give rise to a subsequent generation known as “Generation Alpha,” born after 2012, which will comprise a “majority minority.” The study projects that this transition, wherein non-Hispanic white individuals will constitute less than half of the overall US population, is expected to occur around 2045.
Furthermore, the analysis of the nation’s demographic landscape, encompassing age distribution and racial-ethnic composition, indicates that the elderly population is experiencing the most rapid growth while the youth population is declining.
William Frey, the author of the Brookings Institute study, emphasized that this demographic shift is not devoid of racial implications. He noted, “White Americans contributed substantially to older population gains compared to younger and middle-aged populations, which registered white declines.” Frey also pointed out that these patterns have created what he terms a “racial generation gap,” where the younger population, influenced by recent immigration trends, boasts greater diversity compared to older age groups.
As a consequence, Frey predicts that existing disparities between different age groups in terms of race are likely to persist in the near future. This divergence is not limited to demographics but extends to cultural elements that shape societal dynamics and political viewpoints. For instance, perspectives on recent Supreme Court decisions and proposals related to race and diversity education in public schools are influenced by this generational and racial divide.
However, it is cautioned that drawing predictions solely from census data oversimplifies the complexity of individual identity. Richard Alba, a sociologist at City University of New York, emphasizes that while a diverse mainstream society is evolving, white individuals will remain a significant component of this new landscape.
The author of the Brookings study suggests that a more accurate representation of these changes could be achieved if the forthcoming US census in 2030 modifies its categories. Instead of solely identifying as Hispanic, respondents could have the option to select various “origin” categories and specify particular racial or ethnic identities.
