It seems like the 2024-25 New York theater season just started, but believe it or not it’s already the end, and time for the Tony Awards, which kick off tonight at 8pm, live from Radio City Music Hall. The main event will be broadcast on CBS and Paramount+ with a special pre-show event airing on Pluto TV at 6:40pm. This year’s host is Cynthia Erivo and the show is sure to be a dazzler with big production numbers by big name performers. It was a year of record breaking revenue on Broadway, with a robust 43 new shows produced.
That’s all well and good, but what you’re no doubt wondering is what shows are taking home the big prizes? There’s no way to know for sure, but based on my opinions, combined with the industry buzz, here are my predictions for the main categories. Wager at your own risk.
Best Play
Using last week’s Drama Desk Awards as a bellwether, there’s a good chance Purpose will win, and it should. Not only did it win the Pulitzer Prize and the Drama Desk this year (as I predicted), but the other main contenders—the teen-targeted John Proctor is the Villain and the campy Oh, Mary!—are likely to split votes.
3. 235: Kara Young (Aziza)
Best Musical
This is a tough one. My preference is the clever and esoteric Dead Outlaw, which took home last year’s Drama Desk award (rendering it ineligible this year), but it may just be too “out there” for the Broadway crowd. The production team has been campaigning hard over the last few weeks, but is it enough to beat out Drama Desk winner Maybe Happy Ending, a major fan favorite (which I found superficial, though pleasant)? It could possibly lose votes to Death Becomes Her, which appeals to the same musical theater fan base. This one is a toss up.
Best Revival of a Play
This is, unfortunately, a rather weak category this year. Most of the nominees would never have been selected in any previous year, especially Sam Gold’s abysmal production of Romeo + Juliet, which critics almost universally hated. But, by a fluke of eligibility rules, the very amusing, yet sharp-edged Eureka Day, was nominated in this category, despite never having previously opened on Broadway. Good thing, too, as it would have had little chance of being nominated for Best (new) Play. Now, because competition is so feeble, it seems likely to take home a Tony tonight.
ED3 – Bill Irwin, Thomas Middleditch, Amber Gray, Jessica Hecht, and Chelsea Yakura-Kurtz
Best Revival of a Musical
Despite accolades for Nicole Sherzinger’s performance in Sunset Boulevard, critics disliked the production so much that most were shocked when it was nominated. As a result, it’s almost a certain trophy for Gypsy. The only other contender for best revival would be Pirates! Though delightfully entertaining, this watered down version of Pirates of Penzance just didn’t have the stuff that Tony-winning productions are made of.
Acting Awards
Awards for actors are much harder to predict, and sometimes seem to be almost arbitrary. But there are undoubtedly some top contenders. It seems likely Audra McDonald will nab her seventh Tony (a record!) for Best Actress in a Musical. She was utterly brilliant in Gypsy. Broadway newcomer Jasmine Amy Rogers is her only real contender, having turned a potentially bland Boop! into a delightful, though facile, musical (which Tony nominators all but ignored, despite its 11 Drama Desk nominations, of which it only won three).
2724 – Sarah Snook (Photo by Marc Brenner)
Lead Actor in a Musical is also anyone’s guess. Fan favorites Darren Criss and Jonathan Groff could split the votes and open the door for Dead Outlaw’s Andrew Durand, which would be my choice.
Will the voters give George Clooney a coveted Tony for his performance in Good Night, and Good Luck? It’s possible, and it wouldn’t be a terrible choice. But it’s more likely to go to either Jon Michael Hill for his amazing performance in Purpose or possibly Cole Escola for his charming comic turn in Oh, Mary!
Lead Actress in a Play should absolutely go to newcomer Sarah Snook for her amazing theatrical coup in The Picture of Dorian Gray. But Mia Farrow might sneak in and get an undeserved, but sentimental nod for The Roommate. It was her first appearance on Broadway in decades, and likely her last. The Tonys like teary-eyed moments and that would be a big one.
Enjoy the show tonight, and get ready for an exciting new season of theater, which has already started, but begins in earnest in September. See you in the seats!
