Eric Adams may have been successful in avoiding a federal trial thanks to Trump’s Department of Justice dropping the charges against him, but it has come at the cost of his political future in New York City. That is the argument put forth today in a City & State opinion column penned by veteran political consultants Bradley Honan and Elizabeth Zeche, who share their recent poll that paints a grim picture for the incumbent mayor of New York City.
According to Honan and Zeche’s data, Mayor Adams is tied for third place in the Democratic mayoral primary race alongside Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist member of the state assembly from Queens, at 9%. Meanwhile, former governor Andrew Cuomo, who has not even officially announced a campaign despite months of chatter, is estimated to win the race with 58% of the vote at the sixth round, according to their ranked-choice voting simulator. Adams does not even make it to that final round in their simulation, as they estimate he would be eliminated by the fifth.
Polling last month was already bleak for the mayor, who was still facing federal corruption charges at the time. Out of 800 likely Democratic voters in New York, only 6% listed Adams as their preferred candidate in the ranked-choice primary, putting him in fifth place (again tied with Mamdani) behind the likes of state Senator Jessica Ramos, former and current city comptrollers Scott Stringer and Brad Lander, and Cuomo at the top of the field again at 32%.
When asked about those results at the time, Adams was unfazed, telling reporters that “polls don’t make mayors, people do,” noting that reports of his political death have been greatly exaggerated in the past. The mayor pointed out a headline from February 2021 that exalted then-mayoral-candidate Andrew Yang’s strong polling lead before the Democratic primary in June, where he ended up finishing fourth with 14.8% of the vote.
Still, that election took place with centrist Democrat Biden in the White House, and another factor that Honan and Zeche highlight is voters’ opinion on who can best oppose Trump. According to their poll, 41% of Democrats believe Cuomo is “best equipped to take on the Trump administration.” Our incumbent mayor? 1%. Indeed, Adams is widely believed to be under President Trump’s thumb, as the order to drop the indictment against him was done “without prejudice,” meaning that the charges could be brought up again at any point in the future. As Honan and Zeche put it: “with numbers this bad, and Trump as his de facto dance partner, Adams’ political career – at least in New York City – is effectively over.”
