Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo leads the Democratic field for New York City’s mayoral race, according to a recent poll, but his path to victory is far from clear.
The poll, commissioned by Progressives for Democracy in America in December, shows Cuomo with 32% support from likely Democratic voters, ahead of former city Comptroller Scott Stringer at 10%, and his successor Brad Lander at 8%. State Senator Jessica Ramos and Mayor Eric Adams both sit at 6%, while former Bronx Borough President Rubén Díaz Jr. ties with others at 7%.
While Cuomo holds the lead in the early stages, his favorability ratings reveal a more complicated picture. 44% of voters have a negative view of him, compared to 48% who view him positively. His strong name recognition is both an asset and a liability as he faces ongoing legal challenges. The poll also provides a glimpse into a hypothetical ranked-choice voting scenario, where Cuomo maintains a first-round lead but sees his support drop in later rounds. By the fifth round, Stringer remains in second place with 16%, while Adams is eliminated after the fourth round, with only 8% of the vote.
Adams, the current mayor, has seen his approval ratings take a significant hit since his 2021 victory. The poll shows 71% of respondents view him negatively, a stark contrast to the optimism surrounding his first campaign. Nonetheless, Adams remains defiant, arguing that early polls don’t reflect the true dynamics of the race.
“Polling this early doesn’t matter,” he said, referencing a February 2021 poll where former candidate Andrew Yang was leading. “In February, Yang was kicking my rear. But you know what? We don’t say ‘Mayor Yang,’ we say ‘Mayor Adams.’” Adams is holding firm to the belief that his record—particularly his leadership during the pandemic and his efforts to reduce crime—will ultimately win over voters.
Cuomo’s potential entry into the race raises significant questions, particularly regarding his legal troubles. Investigations into his handling of nursing home deaths during the pandemic and the sexual harassment allegations that led to his resignation in 2021 continue to cast a shadow over his candidacy. While Cuomo denies any wrongdoing, the controversies are sure to be a focal point if he officially announces his bid for mayor. His rivals, including Stringer and Lander, are already preparing to capitalize on these vulnerabilities.
Stringer, who himself faced sexual harassment allegations, has positioned himself as a cleaner alternative to Cuomo, emphasizing his commitment to progressive policies. Brad Lander and Jessica Ramos are also likely to push their progressive credentials as they attempt to gain traction in a race that could see Cuomo and Adams battling for moderate Democratic voters.
While Adams faces his own set of challenges, including a federal corruption investigation into his administration, he is confident that his record will carry him through. “I’ve led this city through some of its toughest moments,” Adams said. “When people look back, they’ll say, ‘Wow, this dyslexic, South Jamaica, public school-educated mayor—blue collar—did something no one thought he could do.’”
The poll also reveals that 18% of voters remain undecided, suggesting that the race is still wide open. With months to go before the primary, candidates will need to secure matching funds from the city’s Campaign Finance Board and navigate the complexities of ranked-choice voting. The contest remains fluid, with much depending on how Cuomo and Adams address their respective legal and political challenges.
