The Consumer Confidence Index has declined again in March, reflecting continued economic anxieties in the face of tariffs and inflation. Based on a monthly survey with a sample size of 3,000 published by The Conference Board, March’s results revealed a seven-point slide in the index from the previous month, dropping down to 92.9, the lowest reading since January 2021. The point system is pegged to the relative value from 1985, which is set at 100 – figures below that number indicate a more pessimistic outlook among consumers than in that year.
“Of the Index’s five components, only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly,” according to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral. Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low.” Guichard says that the drop in consumers’ optimism about future income in March’s results indicate concern about their own personal situations.
Beyond what was revealed in The Conference Board’s standard questions regarding respondents’ current financial situations and their outlook on the future, the write-in section offered a window into what was causing their increased economic anxiety, showing that “inflation is still a major concern for consumers and that worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs in particular are on the rise,” according to the Board’s summary of the findings. “There were also more references than usual to economic and policy uncertainty.” It further states that comments on the Trump administration “dominated” this section.
The fall in confidence was most acute among consumers over 55, and less so with those over 35, while the figures for those surveyed aged 35 and under actually rose slightly. The Conference Board found a “broad-based” decline across income groups, with the exception of those earning more than $125,000 a year, which accounts for around 18.5% of American households according to Census data.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) considers the Consumer Confidence Index to be a leading indicator, meaning that they believe it could be viewed as a forecast of the future of the U.S. economy. A quarterly survey of CFOs conducted by CNBC has found that they share consumers’ pessimistic economic outlook, with a majority stating that they believe the economy will enter a recession in the second half of 2025.
